What will happen if Trump is convicted in New York? No one can really say

When the judge who supervises Donald Trump's criminal trial discovered on May 6 that Trump had violated a gag order for the tenth time, he told her that “the last thing I want to do is put you in prison.”

“You are the former president of the United States and maybe the next president” said Judge Juan Merchan, reflecting on the momentous weight of such a decision.

If it is necessary to imprison the Presumptive Republican Party nominee Being president is a choice Merchan could soon face again, if jurors in Trump's hush money case vote in favor condemn him. Closing arguments and jury deliberations begin this week.

It is difficult to predict what exactly would happen if the jury found Trump guilty. Trump is being tried in New York state court, where judges have broad authority to determine when and exactly what sentences will be imposed after convictions, according to former Manhattan District Attorney Duncan Levin. This differs from the Federal Court, where there is generally a waiting period between conviction and sentencing.

“It's done much more informally in state courts. I've had cases where the jury would come back and say 'guilty,' and the judge would thank the jury and excuse them and say, 'Let's convict him.' accused now.' says Levin. “Obviously everything is a little different in this case from the typical case.”

Each of the 34 charges of falsifying business records Trump faces carries a sentence of up to four years in prison and a $5,000 fine. He pleaded not guilty.

Norm Eisen, an author and attorney, recently analyzed dozens of cases brought by the Manhattan District Attorney's Office in which falsifying business records was the most serious charge at arraignment. It found that about one in ten cases resulted in a prison sentence. But he also cautioned that these prosecutions often involve other charges and noted that the dynamics at play in Trump's case made his sentence particularly difficult to predict.

If Trump is convicted, Merchan would have fairly broad discretion in determining the punishment, including sentencing Trump to probation or house arrest.

Levin said the option of confining Trump to his home, followed by probation, might appeal to Merchan, who has repeatedly indicated he is concerned about limiting a presidential candidate's ability to run for office. express freely. Such an option would allow Trump to conduct interviews and access social media from home.

Since the day Trump was first questioned on April 4, 2023, Merchan has said he has been reluctant to interfere with Trump's ability to campaign.

“He's running for president of the United States. So those First Amendment rights are obviously critically important,” Merchan said that day.

And on May 6, he spoke more broadly about how many more people would be burdened by Trump's imprisonment.

Merchan called incarceration “really a last resort for me,” saying, “I also worry about the people who would have to carry out this punishment: court clerks, corrections officers, the Secret Service, among others.”

Yet that day, he warned Trump that prison was not out of the question.

“I want you to understand that I will, if necessary and appropriate,” Merchan said.

It's a possibility that officials at state and federal agencies have begun preparing for, according to a New York prison source, who said the Secret Service has met with local prison officials. As a former president, Trump is entitled to Secret Service protection for the rest of his life, wherever he is. Behind bars, prison officers would in turn be responsible for protecting officers assigned to Trump.

Where Trump might serve jail or prison time is one of several factors that remains up in the air. Shorter sentences can be served at the Rikers Island prison complex, which has two wings typically used for high-profile or infamous inmates. (Neither, of course, has ever detained anyone who comes with their own security guards.)

Officials need to have a plan in place, just in case, Levin said.

“He could be remanded into custody right away,” Levin said.

Katrina Kaufman contributed reporting.