What is nuclear ambiguity? Discovering Israeli nuclear policy

The Vela incident

On September 22, 1979, a massive explosion was detected in the Indian Ocean, halfway between Africa and Antarctica. No clear explanation was ever provided, but U.S. intelligence would later issue a statement saying the explosion was most likely a low-power nuclear detonation. This incident would later be called the Vela incident, named after the type of U.S. satellites used to detect nuclear explosions on Earth and in space. However, in the years since, responsibility for testing a nuclear weapon has been placed on a combination of the South African and Israeli governments.

Israel has many motivations for developing nuclear weapons. The horrific events of the Holocaust resulted in the deaths of approximately six million Jews. In the decades before the Holocaust, pogroms in Europe and Russia led to riots, internal displacement and the murder of Jews by anti-Semitic mobs encouraged by government propaganda. After the creation of Israel in 1948, a war of independence saw Israel emerge victorious from a coalition of Arab nations. Another war took place in 1967 against the combined armies of Egypt, Jordan and Syria, in which Israel also defeated its opponents. Decades of suffering at the hands of governments and the failure of the international community to prevent regional wars led Israel to develop nuclear weapons in the late 1960s. This allowed Israel to take control of its survival, weapons nuclear weapons being a powerful deterrent against war.

Yes, Israel has nuclear weapons

Currently, Israel is estimated to possess more than 200 thermonuclear weapons. These weapons can be hundreds of times more powerful than those used by the United States in 1945 to end World War II. Israel most likely has the means to deliver these warheads from submarines, aircraft and intermediate-range missiles. This is all speculation, as Israel has a policy of neither confirming nor denying its nuclear arsenal, leaving the world in doubt about its capabilities and policies, while giving Israel the option to deny that it is the first country to introduce nuclear weapons into the unstable Middle East. East.

The Vela incident

On September 22, 1979, a massive explosion was detected in the Indian Ocean, halfway between Africa and Antarctica. No clear explanation was ever provided, but U.S. intelligence would later issue a statement saying the explosion was most likely a low-power nuclear detonation. This incident would later be called the Vela incident, named after the type of U.S. satellites used to detect nuclear explosions on Earth and in space. However, in the years since, responsibility for testing a nuclear weapon has been placed on a combination of the South African and Israeli governments.

Israel has many motivations for developing nuclear weapons. The horrific events of the Holocaust resulted in the deaths of approximately six million Jews. In the decades before the Holocaust, pogroms in Europe and Russia led to riots, internal displacement and the murder of Jews by anti-Semitic mobs encouraged by government propaganda. After the creation of Israel in 1948, a war of independence saw Israel emerge victorious from a coalition of Arab nations. Another war took place in 1967 against the combined armies of Egypt, Jordan and Syria, in which Israel also defeated its opponents. Decades of suffering at the hands of governments and the failure of the international community to prevent regional wars led Israel to develop nuclear weapons in the late 1960s. This allowed Israel to take control of its survival, weapons nuclear weapons being a powerful deterrent against war.

Yes, Israel has nuclear weapons

Currently, Israel is estimated to possess more than 200 thermonuclear weapons. These weapons can be hundreds of times more powerful than those used by the United States in 1945 to end World War II. Israel most likely has the means to deliver these warheads from submarines, aircraft and intermediate-range missiles. This is all speculation, as Israel has a policy of neither confirming nor denying its nuclear arsenal, leaving the world in doubt about its capabilities and policies, while giving Israel the option to deny that it is the first country to introduce nuclear weapons into the unstable Middle East. East.

Although no clear policy has ever been issued by Israel, vague threats and comments from senior Israeli government and military officials have made it clear that Israel has the means and the will to launch powerful military strikes against any adversary in the region. This lack of a formal declaration of nuclear weapons is referred to as nuclear ambiguity, because the extent of Israel's nuclear weapons, delivery systems, and policy is deliberately left unclear to create uncertainty in the eyes of potential adversaries. Israel has repeatedly asserted that it would not be the first country to introduce nuclear weapons into the Middle East. This is not untrue, since the public was never officially informed of the nuclear additions to Israel's arsenal.

Nuclear deterrence

Any use of modern nuclear weapons would be catastrophic. The number of dead and injured would likely reach millions. Knowing this, Israel's enemies moved away. However, this did not deter all aspects of the war. Hamas and Hezbollah are too close to Israel's borders to be struck by nuclear weapons without endangering the lives of Israeli citizens. It is no wonder that these groups, dedicated to the destruction of the Jewish state, have been at the forefront of recent conflicts with their Jewish neighbors. This nuclear policy shortcoming has been corrected sporadically by the Israeli conventional military in the past. This is why Israel invests so much in all aspects of its military posture. Nuclear weapons likely play an important role in deterring war between Iran and Israel, despite frequent upsurges in violence and rhetoric. It is therefore likely that Israel will continue its policy of nuclear ambiguity in the future, as the survival of the Jewish state remains entrusted to the small but extremely powerful holders of undeclared nuclear weapons.

About the Author

Christophe Gettel is an 8-year veteran of the United States Army who served in the National Guard and the 82nd Airborne Division. He was deployed to Iraq twice, notably to participate in the liberation of Mosul.