We must act to reduce the risk of nuclear war

Image: The mushroom cloud over Hiroshima after the explosion of the Little Boy nuclear bomb on August 6, 1945. The atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki remain the first and only use of nuclear weapons in war in history. Source: Wikimedia Commons. – Photo: 2024

By John Carlson*

This article was published by Korea Times.

SYDNEY | June 22, 2024 (IDN) — UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned: “Humanity is on a knife edge. The risk of the use of a nuclear weapon has reached heights not seen since the Cold War.” Urgent action is needed to reduce the risk of nuclear war and establish a process for achieving nuclear disarmament.

Nuclear disarmament is not an unrealistic aspiration. It is rather unrealistic to believe that our chance of avoiding nuclear war can last indefinitely. Over the years, there have been several situations where errors or malfunctions nearly led to nuclear war. Finding a path to the elimination of nuclear weapons, accompanied by urgent risk reduction measures, is imperative for the survival of humanity.

As President Reagan recognized in 1984, a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought. In its 1996 advisory opinion on the legality of nuclear weapons, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) found that the indiscriminate nature, destructive force and environmental consequences of nuclear weapons mean that their use would inevitably violate international humanitarian law. In a nuclear war, not only cannot the civilian populations of countries at war be protected, but the catastrophic consequences, including radioactive fallout and the effects of “nuclear winter”, cannot be limited to those countries. Nuclear war represents a global threat against which all countries have the right to be protected.

Although the ICJ could not determine whether the threat or use of nuclear weapons could be lawful in an extreme case of self-defense, it emphasized that any use of such weapons must be consistent with international law, a a requirement that seems impossible to satisfy. The ICJ considers that nuclear deterrence, based on the threat of reprisals, presents an insoluble dilemma. Just as a nuclear attack would inevitably violate international humanitarian law, so would nuclear retaliation. The ICJ concluded that the only way to resolve this conundrum is through nuclear disarmament.

The ICJ stressed that all countries have an obligation to continue negotiations leading to nuclear disarmament. This is a specific obligation for the parties to the NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty) – 190 countries, including the five recognized nuclear weapon states such as the United States, Great Britain, United Kingdom. United, France and China – and a general obligation of international law applying to the countries. four countries that are not signatories to the NPT and have nuclear weapons such as India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel.

It is reprehensible that nuclear-armed countries ignore their obligation to pursue nuclear disarmament. As permanent members of the Security Council, nuclear-weapon states under the NPT have a special responsibility to uphold international law. There is a lack of will and vision regarding disarmament, reflecting the influence of those whose careers are based on nuclear weapons.

The world cannot afford to continue to remain inactive on nuclear disarmament. Inspiration can be drawn from the Reagan-Gorbachev summit in Reykjavik in 1985, which showed that it was within the reach of world leaders to agree on a timetable for the elimination of nuclear weapons. Although the summit did not achieve this objective, it nevertheless resulted in important arms reduction agreements.

Nuclear disarmament is a big challenge

What can be done? Nuclear disarmament poses an enormous challenge, but seemingly intractable problems can be solved by breaking the problems into discrete steps for progress. Addressing specific issues can reduce risks and contribute to a positive atmosphere in which further progress is possible. We must put pressure on governments to establish a framework for this purpose.

Space does not permit a detailed elaboration of the questions and steps here, but an overview follows. First, urgent action is needed to reduce risks and tensions. These include communication channels and hotlines, lifting the state of alert (removing weapons from alert status, limiting the circumstances in which nuclear weapons could be used) – the “no first use” agreement, proposed by China, would be a major breakthrough. and strengthen national controls on the authority to use nuclear weapons – the fate of the world must not be left in the hands of one or two individuals.

Another key area is the relaunch of arms control negotiations and the development of new arms control agreements. This would involve setting limits on the types and numbers of nuclear weapons and associated delivery systems. An important aspect would be the elimination of so-called tactical nuclear weapons. Another area of ​​work would be arrangements for verification, transparency and confidence-building.

A process of continued engagement is necessary, not only on arms control and disarmament, but also on security issues more generally. Engagement can clarify differences, improve mutual understanding, identify common ground, find solutions and build trust. The emphasis must be on proactive diplomacy and dialogue. New forums will be needed, at management and work levels, and possibly at regional as well as global levels. These must be results-oriented and not paralyzed by political differences, as happened with the Conference on Disarmament.

Middle powers such as South Korea and Australia should work together to persuade nuclear-weapon states that the actions outlined here are essential for international security and for their own national security.

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*John Carlson AM is a former senior Australian government official and was Director-General of the Australian Office of Safeguards and Non-Proliferation from 1989 to 2010. He is a non-resident senior fellow at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation proliferation and non-resident senior fellow at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation. member of the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament (APLN). This article is published in cooperation with the APLN (www.apln.network). [IDN-InDepthNews]

Photo: The mushroom cloud over Hiroshima after the explosion of the Little Boy nuclear bomb on August 6, 1945. The atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki remain the first and only use of nuclear weapons in war in history. Source: Wikimedia Commons.