Ukraine's more liberal use of allied weapons complicates Russian logistics | Russia-Ukraine War

Russia has failed to make significant progress in its war in Ukraine over the past week and has suffered a number of setbacks on its own soil in occupied Crimea and Georgia.

At the same time, Russia sought to project its power far beyond its borders, sending a flotilla to Cuba, which conducted missile exercises en route and threatened to disseminate long-range weapons to Western adversaries.

On the ground, the Russian incursion into the Kharkiv region of northern Ukraine appears to have stalled, with forces leading two separate initiatives in Vovchansk and northern Lyptsi making no further progress.

Ukrainian military officials described the May 10 incursion as an attempt to divert their forces from defending Chasiv Yar, a key settlement in Donetsk, on the eastern front. Here, Russian forces have made steady incremental gains throughout the past week, but the Khortytsia force group defending this position said Russian forces were not operating inside Chasiv Yar.

Visual evidence suggests that Russian forces were still 700-800 meters east of the Siverskyi Donets-Donbass Canal, a waterway that bypasses the eastern boundary of Chasiv Yar.

Another attempted incursion north of Sumy on June 9 advanced about 700 meters into Ukraine and appeared ineffective because it had “failed to establish a significant or lasting presence in this area,” according to the Institute for War Studies, a Washington-based think tank. .

Ukraine's Sumy regional military administration ordered the evacuation of eight villages located within 10 km of the Russian border.

Complicating Russian logistics

A recent change in allied policy regarding the use of Ukrainian weapons appears to have complicated Russian logistics over the past week.

In late May, the United States and Germany joined France and the United Kingdom in allowing Ukraine to use their weapons in Russia, in response to the new Kharkiv offensive.

On Monday, the Ukrainian partisan group Atesh, which operates in occupied Crimea, said Russian authorities had started moving air defense systems to the Russian border region of Belgorod, “which creates a threat to security in Crimea, the leaving without adequate coverage.”

On that day, Ukraine used U.S. Army Tactical Missiles (ATACM) to further weaken Crimea's air defenses. Its headquarters said its forces destroyed the main radar of an S-400 air defense battery at Djankoi, as well as the radars of the S-300 batteries at Yevpatoria and Chernomorsk, all located in the north and west of occupied Crimea. Without radar, their accompanying missile launchers cannot target their missiles.

Crimea's air defense acts as a shield for Russia's Krasnodar Krai region and the Russian naval port of Novorossiysk immediately to the east, which was considered a relatively safe haven after Ukraine's repeated strikes on the port of Sevastopol in Crimea.

But in early June, the Russian Black Sea Fleet withdrew some 18 ships from Novorossiysk. Ukrainian navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk said Russian authorities realized the ships were easy targets.

On Saturday, the Ukrainian Navy reported that seven of these Russian ships were in the Sea of ​​Azov – possibly to protect the Kerch Bridge, which connects Krasnodar Krai with Crimea.

Russia used the bridge on June 8 to transport fuel to Crimea – something it had not done since March, instead favoring a ferry crossing next to the bridge. But Ukraine used American weapons to strike the Russian side of the Kerch ferry on May 31, as soon as geographic restrictions were lifted, thus complicating Russian logistics.

The bridge's vulnerability to attack has been known since October 2022, when Ukraine first hit it with a truck bomb, and it was found to be vulnerable to Ukrainian naval drones last July. In recent days, Russia has placed barges on either side of the bridge to further protect against naval drones.

While the United Kingdom and France have not publicly restricted the use of their weapons on Russian soil, the United States and Germany have only authorized their use in response to incoming fire and only in Kharkov.

The ISW criticized the policy, saying it had “removed a maximum of 16% of Russia's land sanctuary”, compared to the combined territories of the Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk regions that could be hit at the same time. using American-made high-mobility army rocket systems. (HIMARS) and called on the administration to give Ukraine carte blanche.

Russian President Vladimir Putin told reporters at the International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg that providing long-range weapons to Western adversaries would be a “symmetrical response” to lifting the ban on Ukraine's land strikes Russian with allied weapons. He also threatened to use nuclear weapons.

In addition to the lifting of geographic restrictions, Ukraine is due to receive F-16 fighter jets this year.

A report says 60 planes could be expected to be taken out of service from Denmark, Norway and the Netherlands. Ukraine, which still operates Soviet planes, said it needed twice as many to protect its airspace, but on June 6 French President Emmanuel Macron announced he would send French Mirage 2000 fighters -5 in Ukraine, without specifying how much or when.

Ukraine seemed less than happy.

“Like all modern aircraft, the Mirage 2000 can effectively carry out the combat missions assigned to it. These could be air or ground strikes. The aircraft is quite modern, but the F-16 remains a priority,” Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Ilya Yevlash said the next day.

Speaking to French television channels on the eve of celebrations marking the 80th anniversary of the Normandy landings that ended World War II, Macron also said France would train a battalion of Ukrainian troops (4,500 men) on French soil.

Hitting deep in Russia

Ukraine has a free hand when it comes to its own domestically produced weapons, and it has continued to use them to strike military and energy targets in Russia, as it has since the beginning of this year.

Ukrainian drones struck refineries in Belgorod and Rostov on June 6. Two days later, their drones struck the Russian military base in Mozdok in North Ossetia, a Georgian territory occupied by Russia in August 2008. And Ukraine struck a Russian command post in Belgorod with an unspecified weapon in June . 9.

The most prestigious hit came on June 8.

Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) claimed to have damaged a Russian Sukhoi-57 multirole fighter. It released satellite images showing the plane surrounded by burn marks on the tarmac at Akhtubinsk airfield in the Astrakhan region, 589 km from the contact line.

The Su-57 is Russia's most advanced military fighter jet, and this strike would be the first damage to this type of aircraft in the war in Ukraine.

“Images dated June 8 reveal craters from the explosion and distinct traces of fire caused by the strike,” GUR said. Russia has approximately six Su-57s in active service, with six more under construction. “There is data that continues to be refined. There is preliminary information that two Su-57 aircraft may be hit,” a GUR spokesperson said a day later during a telethon. “There is also information about irreparable losses and injuries among the personnel of the occupiers.”

Ukraine said the planes were used to launch Kh-59 and Kh-69 missiles into Ukrainian territory.

Energy losses in Russia and Ukraine

Russia continued to target Ukraine's energy infrastructure: On Friday, the Ukrainian Air Force said it had shot down 48 of 53 Shahed drones launched by Russia targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure. It also shot down five X-101/X-555 missiles.

Russia used combinations of drones and missiles to devastate Ukraine's power infrastructure over the past winter.

Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said Friday that Russia had damaged or destroyed 73% of the country's power plants. The Financial Times said Russia had reduced Ukraine's installed electricity generation capacity before the war, from 55 GW, to just 20 GW.

Russia also has energy problems – and not just because of decommissioned Ukrainian refineries, which have reportedly reduced their refining capacity by at least 14%.

A Stockholm arbitration court ruled on Wednesday that Germany's top gas importer can demand huge damages from Russia for undelivered gas. The Uniper company was in dispute with Russian state gas supplier Gazprom over who was responsible for the non-delivery of gas via the Nordstream 2 pipeline, which should have entered service in 2022, when it was destroyed by unknown saboteurs. .

The court ruled that Uniper could cancel its long-term supply contracts with Gazprom and demand 13 billion euros ($14 billion) in damages from the Russian company.

Gazprom has recently encountered other problems. The Financial Times reported that Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping disagreed last month over the price to sell Russian gas to China, with Xi demanding prices close to subsidized Russian domestic rates. This disagreement blocked the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline project, which Gazprom should have started building to China.

Largely because of the war in Ukraine and lost sales to Europe, Gazprom posted a loss of $6.9 billion last year, the largest in a quarter of a century. If the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline does not come into operation in 2029, the FT reports, Gazprom's profits are expected to fall by another 15 percent.