Ukraine may need more than long-range weapons – DW – 06/09/2024

The German government hesitated for a long time: should it allow Ukraine to use German weapons to strike targets in Russia? Officials feared it would make Germany a party to the war in the eyes of the Kremlin.

But after the United States allowed Ukraine to use its weapons for cross-border strikes, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz reversed his reservations. Ensuring peace means “that we support Ukraine,” Scholz said. He stressed the importance of weighing all risks and consulting closely with allies before making “decisions of such magnitude,” and then approved the use of German weapons to strike targets in Russia.

So far, the United States and Germany have authorized their weapons for cross-border strikes on the condition that Ukraine uses them only for counterattacks aimed at defending the Kharkiv region.

“The terrible dilemma”

The German Patriot anti-aircraft missile system, which has a range of approximately 70 kilometers (40 miles), has the ability to hit targets in Russia, as does the MARS II multiple rocket launcher, which can hit targets located approximately 80 kilometers away. In 2023, the United States equipped Ukraine with ATACMS missiles, with a range of 165 kilometers. The longest range variant can hit targets up to 300 kilometers away.

The decision to authorize the use of these long-range weapons means the United States and Germany have adapted to the new realities of Russia's war against Ukraine, Frank Sauer, an expert on international politics at the Metis Institute of the Bundeswehr University in Munich. . For a long time, Sauer said, Ukraine's allies watched as Russia bombed the country's main cities, particularly Kharkiv, on a daily basis from its airspace and locations near the border — with devastating consequences for civilians.

“It is now possible to fire on the airfields from which these combat aircraft took off, destroying them on the ground and also affecting infrastructure such as airstrips, so that the number of these Russian attacks decreases and the civilian population can be protected,” Sauer said. The assembly points of Russian ground forces can also be reached using ATACMS and self-propelled howitzers, he added.

If Russian pressure on the Kharkiv region eases, Ukraine will be able to better defend other sections of the front, Sauer said. “Until now, we have been faced with the terrible dilemma: either protect the front line or protect civilians in the hinterland.”

Changing strategic considerations

The United States and Germany understand that Ukraine “must be put in a position to act against Russia, otherwise it will lose,” said Andreas Heinemann-Gründer, professor of politics and conflict researcher at the Center for Advanced Security, Strategic and Integration Studies at the University of Bonn, told DW.

Several factors have come together for Western allies to conclude that time is running out. First, Russia is investing heavily in its arms industry and war machines, but these investments have not yet reached the battlefield, Heinemann-Gründer said. Additionally, additional U.S. support for Ukraine would be unlikely if Donald Trump is re-elected in November. The European Parliament will also have a new composition in June, which could impact EU policy towards Russia.

In addition, American and German fears of a nuclear escalation by Russia have clearly diminished, Heinemann-Gründer said. “It seems to me that the West has sent clear signals that it will not tolerate a nuclear attack on Ukraine and that it will take much more massive measures against Russian targets,” he said, adding that in a direct confrontation with NATO, Russia would lose.

Too late?

Although the use of American and German weapons against targets in Russia opens more options for Ukraine, it may be too late to change the course of the war and will not be enough for a breakthrough during war, say Sauer and Heinemann. -Gründer said.

“The window of opportunity for shortcuts that could have radically changed the situation is now closed,” Sauer said.

According to international law, Ukraine has always had the right to defend itself on the territory of the aggressor and not only on its own territory, Heinemann-Gründer said.

Even if Russian soldiers are killed when American or German weapons are used, this does not contradict the international law of war, but is part of combat, Sauer said.

“Of course you cannot target civilian infrastructure or civilians, or use excessive force that is disproportionate to the military objective,” he said. But so far Ukraine has not done so and sees no indication that it will. “On the contrary,” he said, “so far it has been Russia that has fired 500-kilo bombs at hardware stores, residential buildings and theaters.”

This article was originally written in German.