Ukraine can strike (some) targets in Russia with American weapons. And now?

On Thursday, the United States finally joined a growing number of its NATO allies in allowing Ukraine to use Western-donated weapons to strike military targets on Russian territory.

Officials said Ukraine would only be allowed to defend the besieged Kharkiv region, which is being bombarded by missiles and glide bombs launched inside Russia. Additionally, an unnamed official explained that kyiv could only strike “Russian forces that are striking them or preparing to strike them” near the border.

Although Volodymyr Zelensky's spokesperson welcomed the decision, the Ukrainian president himself was more critical, saying the delay allowed Russia to “hunt” Ukrainians into relative safety behind the border. He urged Washington to allow kyiv to penetrate deeper into its neighbor's territory.

Kharkiv is just 40 kilometers from the Russian border, putting it within range of missiles and hover bombs launched from Russian territory. At least 25 people were kill by glide bombs – which can fly up to 60 kilometers after being dropped into Russian airspace – in the city over the past week.

Without permission to retaliate, kyiv was unable to target Russian forces as they gathered behind the border and prepared for their new offensive on the Kharkiv region, said Ivan Stupak, a Ukrainian military expert and reserve officer in the Russian Defense Service. Ukrainian security of the SBU.

“Unfortunately, this precaution costs human lives and territories,” he told the Moscow Times.

And as Ukraine's air defenses have been exhausted awaiting the long-delayed approval and arrival of surface-to-air missiles from the United States, Moscow's airborne attacks have become increasingly devastating. fewer missiles could be intercepted.

Serhii Kuzan, president of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation, told the Moscow Times that allowing kyiv to strike aircraft and ground launchers inside Russian territory is a more cost-effective way to save lives than intercept bombs and missiles.

“Russia can still produce dozens of missiles of different types every month, but it cannot produce a similar number of launchers,” he said.

“It is much more effective to use a SAM missile, which costs several million dollars, to destroy a strategic bomber, which costs tens of millions and is, in Russian reality, an irreparable loss.”

Ukraine already uses domestically produced drones to strike military targets as well as oil refineries, factories and power infrastructure as deep in Russia as in the Republic of Tatarstan. Importantly, Washington's relaxed restrictions allow Ukraine to use advanced weapons like the ATACMS long-range missile system.

The main danger of ATACMS lies in their design, which allows them to overcome obstacles that a simple drone could not overcome.

“[Unlike a drone] ATACMS missiles have GPS guidance and inertial guidance,” says Ryan McBeth, a retired Army infantry veteran and open source intelligence expert. “You can get very accurate shots at Russian factories and production centers without having to deal with the kind of GPS jamming that happens at the front.”

According to McBeth, the launch angle of ATACMS missiles and their ability to maneuver in the air, unlike traditional ballistic missiles, make them more difficult for Russian air defense systems to intercept and neutralize.

Additionally, the unfavorable positioning of Russia's own defense systems may make it more difficult for its surface-to-air missile launchers to catch up with the attacking missile.

McBeth told The Moscow Times that the new threat posed by ATACMS will likely require Russia to develop new strategies and logistical planning from Russian commanders.

Russia may be forced to move its weapons further from the Russian border, out of ATACMS range, and frequently move its air defense systems to protect as many targets as possible.

“There are only so many places to install a battery. So, sooner or later, you will find yourself in the same space a second time. And that’s certainly a dilemma for Russia.”

Moscow has repeatedly warned that the use of Western weapons on Russian soil would lead to an escalation of the war. This week, President Vladimir Putin warned that such a move would be “another step towards serious conflict in Europe. Towards a global conflict.

If Russia were to attack a NATO member, it would trigger Article 5 of the alliance's founding treaty – forcing other member states to defend it and putting them in direct confrontation with Russia.

However, analysts Some have argued that Ukraine's allies have already crossed many of Russia's red lines without triggering a significant escalation. Ukraine used British donations Storm Shadow and U.S. ATACMS against targets in Crimea and other occupied regions of Ukraine that Moscow considers Russian territory.

Washington's decision comes the same week as that of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. said kyiv's allies were “tying a hand behind the back of the Ukrainian armed forces” by preventing them from striking Russian territory.

FranceGermany, FinlandCanada, Poland, Sweden and the Czech Republic have all said they would allow Ukraine to strike targets on Russian soil under certain circumstances.

Although British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said it was up to Ukraine to decide how it would use British weapons, Zelensky said kyiv had not yet received official confirmation from London. He added that Britain's final decision would likely depend on Washington's position.

The Danes and Dutch foreign ministers said On Thursday, Ukraine could use its country's donated F-16s against military targets in Russia to defend itself “within the rules of war.” The first F-16s should enter into service in June or July.

While different countries set their own terms, Kuzan told The Moscow Times that without a clear definition of what Kiev's allies consider a military target, it is difficult to know what Ukraine can or cannot do.

“For example, is it permissible to attack a military installation that serves critical components of the Russian Iskander missile system, which could be used to fire ballistic missiles at civilians in Kharkiv? In practice, this facility is not involved in attacks on Ukraine. But in fact it is. Because without maintenance, the carrier cannot be moved and missiles cannot be launched,” he said.