U.S. intelligence assesses Houthis in Yemen in negotiations to supply weapons to al-Shabaab in Somalia, officials say

CNN
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US intelligence has become aware of discussions between the Houthis in Yemen to supply weapons to the Somali militant group al-Shabaab, which three US officials described to CNN as a worrying development that threatens to further destabilize an already violent region.

Officials are now seeking evidence that Houthi weapons were delivered to Somalia and trying to determine whether Iran, which provides some military and financial support to the Houthis, was involved in the deal.

The United States has warned countries in the region about this possible cooperation in recent weeks, according to a senior administration official, and African countries have also begun proactively talking to the United States about it. their concerns and get more information.

“This is a fairly active topic of conversation that we are having with countries on both sides of the Red Sea,” this person said. “And this is taken very seriously.”

This is not a natural alliance for the two groups, divided by sectarianism and known to have had no relations in the past. The Houthis are Zaydi Shiites, and al-Shabaab has traditionally been deeply ideologically opposed to Shiism. But they are separated by only a single body of water – the strategically important Gulf of Aden – and they both view the United States as their main enemy.

The intelligence raises the alarming possibility that a marriage of convenience could worsen the situation in Somalia, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, where the Houthis have regularly launched attacks on commercial ships and US military assets since the beginning of the war in Gaza.

A potential deal could offer a new stream of funding to the Houthis, at a time when U.S. officials say there are signs that the group's main patron, Iran, has concerns about the group's attack strategy. “Being able to sell some weapons would bring them much-needed revenue,” the senior administration official said.

For al-Shabaab, this could provide access to a new source of weapons – potentially including drones – far more sophisticated than their current arsenal and could offer the group the ability to strike US targets.

There has been regular smuggling of small arms and commercial equipment between different groups in Yemen and Somalia for years. But an arms deal between al-Shabaab and the Houthis would be something new, according to U.S. officials.

“This would be the clearest sign that two organizations that are ideologically diametrically opposed to each other – that they have prioritized something they have in common, which is hostility towards [the United States]” said Christopher Anzalone, a professor in the Department of Middle East Studies at the Marine Corps University. “That would be very important because it shows that there is a certain level of pragmatism within both organizations. ”

Any form of military cooperation between the Houthis and al-Shabaab could also undermine the informal and fragile ceasefire between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, in effect since 2022, the senior administration official said. And that would “certainly” go against the spirit of the U.N.’s proposed road map for a more lasting peace, the official said.

“We still have a strong interest in supporting the road map process in Yemen,” the official added, “but this type of trafficking between the Houthis” and al-Shabaab “would certainly complicate and undermine that effort.”

Officials say that at this point they are unsure what type of weapons the Houthis might supply to al-Shabaab. Currently, the Somali group generally only has access to the rockets, mortars and homemade IEDs it has used in its fight against the Somali government – ​​deadly, but relatively smaller, weapons. The Houthis, by comparison, have armed drones, including underwater drones. They also have short-range ballistic missiles. There is a sense that the deal would cover “bigger hardware” than just rockets and mortars, a U.S. official said, but beyond that the intelligence is murky.

No matter what the Houthis propose, al-Shabaab's opportunities to directly fire on U.S. assets in the region are likely limited. Even if the Houthis provided them with some of the smaller missiles the group has used to target U.S. MQ-9 drones, Anzalone said, al-Shabaab would likely have to fire them from the north of the country. Pockets of this region of the country are controlled by an increasingly powerful branch of ISIS. Al-Shabaab often fights to conquer territory and, as a result, has a much more limited presence and freedom of maneuver.

“They would love to do that,” Anzalone said, referring to direct strikes against U.S. assets. Al-Shabaab views the internationally recognized Somali government as a puppet of the United States. But, he added, “I think they would have a hard time doing it.” This is where the intra-jihadist fighting between Shabaab and ISIS is the most intense.”

The United States has about 480 American troops in Somalia, according to a U.S. official. The United States has continued to conduct counterterrorism strikes against Al-Shabaab and ISIS targets in Somalia throughout the Biden administration.

A major question for U.S. intelligence officials is the degree of involvement Iran might have in this arrangement. There is no direct evidence yet, officials said, but the United States continues to look. This is part of broader Iranian efforts to expand the front against the United States and the West by directly or indirectly supplying weapons to proxy groups.

“It’s something we definitely have our eyes on,” the senior administration official said.

But the Houthis are also one of the most independent-minded of the various Iran-aligned groups and are arguably those over which Tehran exercises the least control. Iran has broadly sought to closely manage any potential escalation resulting from the Gaza war, calibrating its response to extract costs from the United States and Israel without allowing it to slide into direct conflict.

Some US officials are therefore skeptical about Iran's involvement.

“Don’t think that Iran is really part of this,” one military official said. “The Houthis are their own Houthis.”