Trump's probation could also shake up the 2024 presidential race

Metro

By Jon Levine, Matthew Sédacca And Chris Harris

Manhattan Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan will have broad discretion to choose among six potential sanctions against former President Donald Trump at his sentencing next month — including some that would virtually prevent the GOP front-runner from standing. launch into the electoral campaign.

The first problem for the presumptive Republican nominee — who was convicted of falsifying business records by a Manhattan jury this week — is timing.

Merchan's July 11 sentencing hearing will take place four days before the Republican National Convention, meaning he could potentially force the former president to ignore it.

The conviction could also upend the schedule for the 2024 presidential debate if Trump's sentence prevents him from attending.

The second of the two clashes, hosted by ABC, will take place on September 10 and a good performance is widely seen as essential by Team Trump.

Merchan can't disqualify Trump from running, but the judge — who was called a “devil” on Friday by Trump — can impose various race-shaking penalties. Its options:

PRISON

The most extreme option is also the least likely, experts say.

“At most, a prison sentence for Trump would be between one and three years. Although also unlikely, a sentence longer than a year would mean he would serve his sentence in an upstate prison. A sentence of one year or less would be served at Rikers,” said Jason Goldman, a New York criminal lawyer.

“No other human being convicted of this specific crime has ever served a single day,” he added.

The city has already made contingency plans regarding the possibility of imprisoning Trump, with Mayor Adams saying the Rikers Island municipal jail is “ready.”

Incarceration does not prevent Trump from continuing his campaign.

In 1920, socialist Eugene V. Debs ran in his final presidential campaign from prison where he was serving time for violating the Espionage Act – and managed to win nearly a million votes.

HOUSE ARREST

Although as unlikely as prison, some view house arrest as potentially more insidious.

Locking Trump in his Fifth Avenue triplex would effectively keep him away from the campaign trail without the spectacle and expense of prison.

“Prison, house arrest, even probation for a 77-year-old first-time offender (and former president at that) for a low-level nonviolent crime, who has a powerful appeal and no history of violence, drug or alcohol abuse is almost unheard of,” said Aida Leisenring, a criminal defense attorney at Barket Epstein.

“Home detention is not a state sentence, but the judge could make it a condition of probation, under which President Trump would only be allowed to leave his residence for medical, religious and legal purposes and for any other reason authorized by the judge,” she said. Such a sentence. . . would raise more than just eyebrows.

PROBATION

Probation is “much more likely” than prison or house arrest, but it could be disruptive, legal experts told the Post.

Under normal New York state rules, a probation officer would have to approve every time Trump wants to leave the Empire State — which could complicate his plans to hit swing states like Pennsylvania, Georgia and Michigan .

“The most immediate challenge for the president concerns the standard rules applicable to the probation officer. Usually, a convicted person must obtain permission for any out-of-state travel, a rather daunting prospect for a presidential candidate. Will a probation officer really determine whether Trump can go to Chicago but not Las Vegas? » Jonathan Turley, a law professor at George Washington University, told the Post.

In practice, Merchan would have broad authority to set the terms of probation and could allow Trump more leniency.

CONDITIONAL ABANDONMENT

In that case, Trump would be released, but subject to certain court-ordered conditions, said Martin Horn, professor emeritus at John Jay College of Criminal Justice. .

“He could be required to pay a fine on such and such a date, and once he meets that condition, his case will be resolved,” Horn said.

“It all depends on the conditions imposed, and if a travel restriction is imposed, the judge could require that he stay in the jurisdiction, but that would be very unusual, very unusual,” Horn added.

Before sentencing, Trump will have to have an interview with a probation officer, who will write his pre-sentence report, which the judge theoretically takes into account in his decision.

FINES

The maximum fine that can be imposed for a Class E felony is $5,000 under New York law, which experts agree Merchan will likely impose.

The lawyer could try to ease the pain by ordering consecutive fines for each of the 34 counts, amounting to a bill of $170,000.

But lawyers believe Merchan will choose to have the fines applied concurrently.

“It would be unheard of for them to issue consecutive fines in a case like this, but everything is unheard of in a case like this, so who knows,” said white-collar criminal lawyer Jonathan Rosenberg.

PUBLIC SERVICE

Merchan could also impose community service on the former president, a situation that could force Trump into menial servitude — but would otherwise have no impact on the presidential race.

“He could also benefit from community service as part of a probationary sentence, including picking up trash from the side of the road,” criminal defense attorney Jeffrey Lichtman told the Post.

Trump could also serve this sentence at a food bank or community garden.

“I don't know of any cases where someone around 70 years old with no criminal record is convicted of the lowest crimes and goes to prison. Probation in New York would just be a waste of money. Some sort of community service would be the most appropriate punishment,” criminal defense attorney Arthur Aidala told the Post.

LOOK FORWARD

• June 2024: The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule on Trump's immunity from prosecution in the federal case alleging he plotted to overturn the 2020 presidential election.
• June 13: Deadline for Trump's lawyers to file motions to challenge the hush money trial verdict and file a sentencing recommendation with Manhattan Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan.
• June 27: first presidential debate. It's also the deadline for Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg to file sentencing recommendations.
• July 11: Trump condemned by Merchan in the monetary silence affair. If he is sentenced to prison, it will begin immediately, unless an appeals court agrees to suspend the sentence pending appeal.
• July 15-18: Republican National Convention in Milwaukee
• August 10: Deadline for Trump to file a notice of appeal.
• September 10: Second debate.
• November 5: presidential election