Tropical activity could develop near the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean by mid-June

AccuWeather meteorologists have been monitoring tropical activity in the northwest Caribbean for the past few weeks. It appears that torrential downpours developing in the Gulf of Mexico and waters northeast of Florida could evolve into one or more tropical systems beginning in the second week of June.

Although there are no signs of a tropical system forming and intensifying rapidly in the coming days, weak disturbances have recently caused unrest in the form of torrential downpours and flash flooding in some of the northern Caribbean islands.

One such feature tracked by AccuWeather meteorologists moved from the west-central Caribbean to northern Hispaniola on Monday. Part of this broad disturbance will bring further showers to the northeastern Caribbean islands through Friday.

Additional showers and the potential for slow tropical development will not stop with this feature. Over the weekend, more showers and thunderstorms will gather over the north-central and northwest Caribbean, including parts of Central America, southeastern Mexico, Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola and the Bahamas.

Some showers will spread north to Florida next week, but could also extend north and west to the Gulf Coast.

As a tropical disturbance or tropical wave enters from the east early next week and a trough in the jet stream approaches, not only will moisture be drawn northward, but there is also a risk of a tropical depression developing in the northwest Caribbean area. east of the Gulf of Mexico.

Unusually warm waters, well above the critical threshold of about 80 F, and a humid environment favor development. The next trough in the jet stream could also help provide some low-grade rotation to the area.

The proximity of land areas in the region can act as a deterrent to formation and significant strengthening, particularly if steering breezes quickly drive any incipient tropical depressions ashore.

From June 12-15, an area from the northwest Caribbean to the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico could support tropical development.

“The average date of the first named storm in the Atlantic basin is June 20, so if a storm forms, it will be several days ahead of the historical average,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather's chief tropical meteorologist.

“Regardless of development, there is a risk of very heavy rain in central and southern Florida and parts of Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as tropical humidity rises northward,” added DaSilva.

Upcoming showers will help ease the sweltering heat expected to peak across much of the peninsula this weekend.

One scenario slowly develops a weak tropical system, extending it northeastward across Florida and the Bahamas. This would bring torrential rains to part of the Florida peninsula.

In addition to the risk of flash flooding in urban and low-lying areas and possible isolated tornadoes and waterspouts, the rain would help alleviate abnormally dry or dry conditions and significantly reduce the risk of wildfires on the peninsula from Florida. The same disturbance could then persist off the southeast coast of the United States.

Another scenario slowly moves this disturbance north or west over the Gulf of Mexico instead of crossing Florida, perhaps even blocking it over warm waters for an extended period, where it could gain more by force.

It is also possible that more than one disturbance will result from the large mosaic of showers and thunderstorms.

A second system could emerge from the northwest Caribbean and track toward the western Gulf of Mexico after mid-June. This scenario could bring torrential downpours and gusty winds to northeastern Mexico and possibly the western and central Gulf Coast.

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If one or more disturbances develop into a tropical system and persist over water for a few days, the risk of rapid intensification would increase due to unusually high water temperatures.

AccuWeather's tropical weather team, led by DaSilva, continues to sound the alarm on an extremely busy Atlantic hurricane season with multiple threats to the United States. Of the 20 to 25 named systems predicted, eight to 12 are expected to strengthen into hurricanes, with four to seven expected to reach Category 3 strength or greater.

These numbers are higher than last year and well above the 30-year historical average from 1990 to 2020. Unusually warm waters this year could lead to a significant number of rapidly intensifying storms.

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