The weapon Saudi Arabia could buy if it strikes a defense pact with the United States

The Biden administration is working to reach a historic deal with Saudi Arabia, which includes a defense pact. Even if this is implemented in the near future, and it is still a big problem ifIt is unclear what advanced weapons Riyadh might be seeking that it has not already been able to purchase.

Finalizing agreements related to the US-Saudi deal, which includes a defense pact and unprecedented nuclear energy cooperation, “could take weeks”, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said during a hearing in the House of Representatives on May 22. three days after National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Salman to discuss the terms of the deal.

Additionally, the administration intends to lift its three-year-old ban on the sale of offensive weapons to Riyadh within weeks, the Financial Times reported on May 26.

These developments suggest that a US-Saudi deal is on the horizon. However, without Saudi-Israeli normalization, Congress will not approve any defense pact between Washington and Riyadh. Furthermore, normalization depends on Israel's commitment to the negotiated creation of a Palestinian state, something it is very reluctant to do under the current right-wing government and in the post-October era in general. . 7 environment.

So while Washington and Riyadh may be close to finalizing bilateral agreements on this historic deal, it may not come to fruition anytime soon.

But even if Saudi Arabia were to reach a major defense deal, it probably wouldn't make much of a difference when it comes to the U.S. military hardware it could buy. In the 2010s, Riyadh purchased 84 F-15SA Saudi Advanced fighters, the most advanced F-15 until recent years. The United States has since developed the similar Qatar Advanced variant for Riyadh's neighbor and then the F-15EX Eagle II, which Riyadh also has the option to purchase.

Saudi Arabia also operates the MIM-104 Patriot and is expected to receive the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD, air defense missile system by the end of this decade. On the ground, the kingdom has hundreds of M1 Abrams main battle tanks.

And while there have been occasional proposals to restrict U.S. arms sales to the kingdom, they have not come to fruition or, in the case of the administration's offensive weapons ban, proved temporary .

“Saudi Arabia and Israel are already de facto security partners thanks to the coordination provided by US Central Command,” Nicholas Heras, senior director of strategy and innovation at the New Lines Institute, told me . “Israel was added to Central Command's area of ​​operations in late 2021, reflecting growing ties between Israelis and close U.S. partners in the Gulf. »

“Saudi Arabia already enjoys a close partnership with the United States, and while that partnership is sometimes strained, the reality is that neither Washington nor Riyadh are willing to give up on hugging each other,” he said. he declares.

When the UAE normalized relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords in 2020, it received authorization to enter into a historic deal for 50 fifth-generation F-35 Lightning II stealth jets. It was the first time that Washington agreed to sell the F-35 to an Arab ally. The deal has since stalled due to disagreements between the United States and the United Arab Emirates over the extent and nature of the latter's technological cooperation with China.

As part of any defense deal with Riyadh, Washington will expect the kingdom to reduce its arms purchases and similar technological cooperation with Beijing. The administration is currently discussing a potential sale of Saudi F-35s as part of the deal.

Normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel could also allow Riyadh to purchase advanced Israeli weapons. The UAE has purchased Israel's Barak and SPYDER air defense systems since 2020. Riyadh could tap the combat-proven David's Sling to bolster the mid-tier of its air defenses, alongside the KM-SAM system it recently ordered from South Korea.

It is not yet clear whether Israel would sell its Arrow 3 exoatmospheric anti-ballistic missile system to Saudi Arabia. A Saudi Arrow 3 would undoubtedly go a long way in strengthening the next tier of Saudi air defense alongside THAAD.

Riyadh is also seeking to become “an equal partner” in a sixth-generation fighter jet program. It sought a partnership under the UK-Japan-Italy Global Combat Air Program to build the Tempest fighter, but Tokyo was reluctant.

On the other hand, Germany recently lifted a five-year ban on the sale of additional Eurofighter Typhoon jets to Saudi Arabia after shooting down missiles fired from Yemen by the Houthis at Israel last year. Normalization with Israel could lead Berlin to urge its partners, France and Spain, in the future sixth generation combat air system, to grant Riyadh the full partnership it seeks in this program.

Heras argued that Saudi Arabia's primary goal in seeking this deal is not to obtain authorization to purchase “a specific weapons system” from the United States.

“Even the most advanced systems like the F-35 will be years, if ever, away from reaching Saudi Arabia, given all the difficulties the UAE has had in acquiring the aircraft, even after a almost complete normalization with Israel,” he said.

“For Riyadh, the agreement in question, and which depends on Israeli behavior, is the total American guarantee of Saudi Arabia as a nuclear power protected by an American defense agreement comparable to that of NATO,” he said. he added. “This is the type of price that would incentivize Saudi Arabia to formally normalize relations with Israel, giving the Biden administration a massive diplomatic victory in an election year. »

Heras believes that the fact that the administration is now pushing so hard to reach an agreement – ​​while the war in Gaza continues and the postwar order is uncertain – illustrates how it “deeply believes that a pre-election Saudi-Israeli deal” will help Biden win re-election. He hopes to do this by building support among pro-Israel voters who seek “a more assertive American role in the world” and by signaling to Democratic voters that the Gaza crisis and the broader Palestinian issue are not “the question of era they think it is.” »

“There is a certain playfulness in the Biden administration's approach to this issue, as if it wants to prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that it can impose geopolitics according to its preferences and forge an agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. »