The space arms race may be underway – it carries huge risks

As conflict rages on Earth, an arms race may be underway in space. On May 30, a U.S. diplomat warned that Russia had launched a “weapon into orbit,” which Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov called “fake news.” This follows accusations made in recent months by US and Russian officials that the two countries are trying to place nuclear weapons in space.

Such an action, if true, would contravene the 1967 UN Outer Space Treaty, under which all parties agreed to “not place in orbit around the Earth any object carrying nuclear weapons or any other type of weapons of mass destruction. The treaty is now ratified by 114 countries, including major space powers such as the United States, Russia, China, India, France, Japan and the United Kingdom.

News of possible nuclear weapons in space is concerning, especially at a time when the race to land, settle humans and exploit resources on the Moon, Mars and Earth beyond has intensified. The potential militarization of space has led many to fear that the freedom to peacefully explore and use space will be eroded.

Weaponizing space would not only be dangerous for world peace, but would also threaten to hinder technological development on Earth. If the space arms race escalates into a full-fledged war, it could lead to the use of weapons capable of destroying valuable assets such as satellites. This would disrupt our communications, navigation and other innovations.

The UN Security Council has become a battleground over how to control the rhetoric of space weapons and war. The Security Council is made up of 15 countries, including five veto-wielding members, and is responsible for maintaining international peace and security.

In response to reports that Russia had developed an anti-satellite nuclear weapon for installation in space, the United States and Japan introduced a draft resolution in April 2024 calling on all countries to prevent an arms race in space. space. Russia vetoed the resolution but said it was “firmly committed” to the existing 1967 treaty. The veto prompted the United States to question whether Moscow was hiding something.

Then, in May 2024, Russia and China drafted a similar resolution emphasizing the need to “prevent the placement, threat, or use of any weapons in space.” This resolution received seven votes in favor and seven votes against. Therefore, it was not adopted.

Space weaponry

Military interests, assets and personnel have always been at the forefront of the exploration and use of space. In fact, fears that the first satellites and first humans orbiting Earth could give the Soviet Union a military and strategic advantage prompted the United States to view space as an extension of the arms race during the Cold War.

Following a series of nuclear tests in space in the 1960s by the United States and the Soviet Union, a common understanding of their destructiveness and threat to the Earth's atmosphere subsequently gave rise to the Outer Space Treaty. But even though the treaty exclusively bans weapons of mass destruction in space, it leaves room for ambiguity regarding other forms of weapons.

As a result, the United States and the Soviet Union tested several anti-satellite weapons during and after the Cold War. China and India have also conducted missile tests against space satellites, while the United Kingdom, France, Israel, Japan, North and South Korea and Iran are also considered capable to develop anti-satellite weapons.

Only in 2022 did the United States become the first country to announce a ban on such missile tests, calling them reckless. The tests create space debris that poses a risk to active satellites and humans in orbit.

The militarization of space poses a significant threat to the inclusiveness and shared benefits of the exploration and use of outer space. Low Earth orbit has become increasingly crowded, with an astronomical increase in the number of satellites launched by established and emerging spacefaring nations.

According to UN records, more than 80 countries have collectively put nearly 18,450 objects into orbit since 1957. And no fewer than 15 African countries have orbited 58 satellites over the past three decades, with 100 satellites at different production stages on the continent. These are significant investments driven by the desire for a certain degree of independence in access to space for socio-economic development and security.

Countries are not the only ones sharing the benefits of space. The private sector is increasingly involved in space activities. Elon Musk's SpaceX, for example, launched 6,500 Starlink satellites, of which 6,050 were still in orbit as of May 2024. The initiative aims to provide high-speed internet connections to remote and disconnected parts of the world.

That said, the collaboration between SpaceX's Starlink and the US Department of Defense, which supports the activities of the Ukrainian military in its conflict with Russia, makes it a potential target in the event of a Russian nuclear attack in space.

The threat posed by an arms race in space must be taken into account and combatted. Renewed cooperation among major world Powers and support for the United Nations framework are essential to ensure the peaceful and inclusive exploration and use of outer space.