The imminent danger of nuclear confrontation

NEW DELHI: The real danger today is the return of nuclear issues to the forefront of the international political scene.

Recent nuclear developments have created an imminent danger of the potential use of nuclear weapons. If such a catastrophic scenario were to hit an already chaotic security environment, it would be the second time in about eight decades that nuclear weapons would be used since the United States dropped two nuclear bombs on two Japanese cities.

The news headlines of late are truly frightening, if you put them into perspective. Russia has threatened to use nuclear weapons amid a war with Ukraine that has escalated into a deadly Cold War-style confrontation between the United States and Russia. In the early 1960s, Washington and Moscow brought the world to the brink of nuclear war, amid the Cuban Missile Crisis. At that time, nuclear warheads were not as powerful as today and the delivery systems were not as precise as today.

Although the crisis was resolved in time, there were several instances, before and after the Cuban Missile Crisis, where the threat of the use of nuclear weapons hung over humanity like a sword of Damocles. While nuclear arms control agreements were signed by the United States and the former Soviet Union, what was controlled was the number of nuclear warheads and not the modernization of nuclear arsenals. Most of these arms control agreements have become useless and no new agreements are being considered. To add to the dangers facing them, China, France and the United Kingdom have not joined any initiative aimed at limiting the nuclear arms race and the emergence of new nuclear powers cannot be ruled out in the current circumstances.

The five major nuclear powers, which were also members of the UN Security Council, did everything they could to retain their nuclear arsenals, while supporting the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to discourage other countries from develop their nuclear capacity. Tremendous efforts have been made by the United States and its allies to prevent India from exercising its nuclear option, while turning a blind eye to Pakistan's quest to acquire nuclear weapons. Currently, there are eight self-proclaimed nuclear powers, and there is Israel, which has not yet declared its status as a nuclear power, but is considered to have a nuclear capability.

The real danger today is the return of nuclear issues to the forefront of the international political scene. While repeatedly invoking its nuclear capability to warn the United States and NATO against interfering too much in the war in Ukraine, Russia held its nuclear exercise. Moscow's tactical nuclear weapons exercise may have been a response to French President Emmanuel Macron's suggestion to send NATO troops to help Ukraine against Russia. And Macron ordered the launch of France's nuclear-capable ASMPAR missile shortly after the Russian exercises began.

While Putin reportedly upgraded the country's nuclear arsenal by testing new nuclear weapons, the United States conducted three subcritical nuclear weapons tests to verify the reliability of its nuclear weapons. Talk of Poland harboring US nuclear weapons has angered Russia and Putin has warned of serious repercussions. China, for its part, refuses to participate in any nuclear arms control initiatives and continues to expand its arsenal both in terms of quantity and quality. According to an American estimate, China already has around 500 nuclear warheads equipped with triadic launch systems: land, sea and air.

North Korea's continued testing of missiles of all ranges has caused serious concern in Japan and South Korea, two East Asian countries that can pursue nuclear weapons on short notice and whose loud voices strongly recommend the development of an independent nuclear capability and raise suspicions about the United States' extended nuclear deterrent. . China's threatening war exercises around the Taiwan Strait, growing presence in the waters of the South China Sea, territorial claims in the East China Sea, open confrontation with the Philippines and uncertainty surrounding Sino relations -American Cold War-type conflicts and strategic ties between Russia. , China and North Korea are compelling reasons that could cause further proliferation in East Asia.

Closer to home, there is a good chance that Iran will develop its nuclear weapons. While Iran has long vowed its intention to acquire only civilian nuclear capability, Israel has always doubted Iranian intentions, and the United States has kept all options open to prevent Iran from going nuclear. Israel's war against Hamas, low-intensity Iran-Israel clashes involving Iran's use of the Houthis, Hezbollah and Hamas as resistance forces, as well as Israel's alleged assassination of Iranian military officers and scientists nuclear weapons have changed the situation on the ground in the Persian Gulf.

Iran has openly threatened to change its nuclear doctrine in response to current conflicts in the region. If Iran goes nuclear, can Saudi Arabia be far behind? The Saudis don't have the nuclear infrastructure to make nuclear weapons, but they have the money to buy them. Pakistan's secret acquisition of nuclear weapons is a well-known story. Its current economic situation, its dependence on China, periodic pressure from the United States and the lure of Saudi money make it a potential seller of nuclear weapons.

Importantly, Pakistan has continued to build up its nuclear capacity and delivery systems, despite the Himalayas' economic woes and its rush to the International Monetary Fund for help. Recently, it tested its Multiple Independently Targeting Reentry Vehicles, or MIRVs. In terms of quantity, its nuclear arsenal would be greater than that of India.

Added to the growing risk of nuclear use is the possibility of using artificial intelligence in nuclear systems. This could reduce the human role in the use of nuclear weapons and create a higher level of strategic uncertainty. Growing distrust among major powers in a changing world order presents the danger of covert use of AI in nuclear systems that is unverifiable.

The fear that nuclear materials will fall into the wrong hands of non-state actors only amplifies current nuclear threats. Fears of a dirty nuclear bomb in the hands of non-state actors have not materialized, but the possibility of such an outcome cannot be ruled out. The IAEA recently reported that last year there were 168 incidents of theft, neglect or “improper disposal” of nuclear and radioactive materials. Thousands of such cases have been reported in previous decades. The re-emergence of terrorist threats in India's neighborhood is a cause for concern and counter-terrorism measures are periodically rethought and innovated. The quest for a “dirty bomb” by modern-day terrorist groups is a potential threat that should not be put on the back burner.

Standards specialists and pragmatic security analysts in India need to be proactive in reviewing current trends and formulating their recommendations to prepare India to meet the challenges.

* Chintamani Mahapatra is the founding president of the Kalinga Institute of Indo-Pacific Studies and a former professor at JNU.