Taiwan is running out of time to prepare for war with China

Summary: Taiwan urgently needs weapons and training to prepare for a possible conflict with China, aiming to be ready by 2027.

-The ongoing wars in Ukraine and Israel highlight the deficiencies in arms purchasing and spending.

-Taiwan needs advanced missiles, expanded naval capabilities, and increased training and joint exercises with U.S. and allied forces.

-The United States must prioritize immediate aid and support to ensure Taiwan's military preparedness.

-Delaying these efforts could jeopardize Taiwan's defense, especially given China's growing military power and historic mandate for unification.

Taiwan needs immediate military support amid growing threat from China

Taiwan needs weapons and training now, not in 2027, 2030 or some spurious timetable. China has repeatedly said it is prepared to use force to take Taiwan and will be ready by 2027.

The wars in Ukraine and Israel reveal significant deficits in arms supply and spending, which were already insufficient for Taiwan's deterrence and defense against China. It is no longer a question of cost, but of time and years of production.

Air-to-air, anti-ship, surface-to-air and interceptor missiles

The Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel in April 2024 was successfully thwarted, but required the expenditure of approximately 300 countermunitions by the United States, United Kingdom, France, 'Israel and other countries. Additionally, since October 2023, a coalition of U.S. and European allies has defended Israel against Iranian-backed Houthi attacks on Israel and shipping in the Red Sea.

A week later, the Navy requested an additional $1 billion to replenish its weapons spending, particularly SM-3 ballistic missile interceptors, and another $1 billion for emergency purchases. Congress then reversed course and rushed to pass three additional bills for Ukraine, Israel and the Pacific, which had been waiting to be voted on for months. Cross-referencing the budget documents of the Ministry of Defense reveals the seriousness of the situation.

$1 billion is equivalent to purchasing a year's worth of SM-3s in 2023. 300 targets intercepted is similar to the number of AIM-120 air-to-air missiles per year for the Navy or Air Force or the combined one-year number of AIM-9X. . Similarly, Lockheed and Raytheon announced double and quadruple annual production of PAC-3 PATRIOT missile interceptors.

Prior to the multiple wars, AIM-120s, PAC-3s, SM-3s and other acquisitions were intended for normal training and sustainment, and all came from the same three installations. No potential wars in the Pacific, Europe and the Middle East.

The majority of the Pacific aid package passed by Congress was allocated for the development, procurement and construction of AUKUS. Deterring and defending Taiwan against China requires even more.

Minimum 13 naval aircraft carriers, air wings and drones

The United States must expand its fleet to at least 13 aircraft carriers and build 13 combat air wings, in order to finance the extension of the retirement of the Nimitz-class aircraft carriers until 2030. The current fleet is 11, distributed in various maintenance, training and operations cycles. . Realistically, a war with China could result in at least two damages, reducing the fleet to nine. Shipyard capacity and replacement delays mean they will likely never be returned to service, as demonstrated by the economic loss of the USS Bonhomme Richard in 2020.

This also applies to the air wings, which are unlikely to be replaced, especially the pilots. The Navy and Air Force must fund combat drones simply to deal with attrition. The Department of Defense must stop proposing annual reductions in the F-35, F-22, F-15C, F-15E/EX, EA-18G and E-3 needed to deter and defend Taiwan against China.

Win, lose, draw or it doesn't happen; Chinese military expansion or any shift in the balance of power increases the risk and demands of conflict in the Indian Ocean in the 2030s.

Joint exercises, state partnership program and basic training

The United States and its allies must expand training and exercises with the entire Taiwanese military. Exercises form the basis of security cooperation and differentiate between isolated armies and those with operational experience.

It also reveals deficiencies that need to be corrected, which is why training cannot be limited to selected units which invariably become vectors of prestige, not aptitude or capability. To paraphrase Mao Zedong's “On Guerrilla Warfare,” doctrinally it is impossible for an army to be special.

Additionally, Taiwan is to join the State Partnership Program, in which countries partner with states and the National Guard for regular exchanges and relations.

Finally, the United States must supplement Taiwan's basic training capacity, replicating the equivalent of, say, the Marine Corps Recruit Depot at Parris Island or San Diego, each producing up to 20,000 Marines per year. This must happen before 2027, not after, as demonstrated by late training in Ukraine just to deal with attrition.

The latter policies are the most difficult because, unlike government procurement, they require Taiwan to engage in its own defense. The island is divided, there is a passive fear of upsetting China, a denial that there will be no war, that they are too valuable to the world or that everyone respects their right to exist .

China has announced its intention to invade. Their history demands unification. It’s probably too little, too late to deter, and 2027, or even sooner, is the best chance China has ever had – and it will.

Matt Quan is a veteran of the US Air Force and has previously been assigned has THE Secretary of THE Air Force, International Affairs at THE Pentagon.

This article was first published by RealClearDefense.