Strengthening deterrence: US plans to deploy intermediate-range missiles in the Indo-Pacific

The United States is set to deploy intermediate-range ground-based missiles in the Indo-Pacific region as part of a strategic move to strengthen deterrence in the face of China's escalating military prowess.

These imminent deployments are aimed at strengthening defense capabilities and countering China's growing arsenal of missile systems.

Missile options and capabilities: SM-6 and Tomahawk cruise missile

Recent reports indicate that land-based versions of the Standard Missile-6 (SM-6) and the Tomahawk cruise missile are among the missile options being considered.

The SM-6, with a range of 350 kilometers (217 miles), and the Tomahawk cruise missile, with a range of 2,500 kilometers (1,553 miles), are formidable choices.

Both missiles are compatible with the U.S. Army's Medium Range Capability System, also known as the Typhoon Weapon System, improving the Army's flexibility and adaptability in its deployment strategies.

One of the main advantages of land-based missiles is their improved stealth capabilities. These missiles can potentially evade detection and minimize vulnerability to enemy strikes.

This feature sets them apart from other deterrent options, such as military ships and fighter jets.

In addition, unlike naval assets, these ground-based missiles do not depend on ports or runways, thus offering greater operational flexibility.

The United States is set to deploy intermediate-range ground-based missiles in the Indo-Pacific region as part of a strategic move to strengthen deterrence in the face of China's escalating military prowess.

These imminent deployments are aimed at strengthening defense capabilities and countering China's growing arsenal of missile systems.

Missile options and capabilities: SM-6 and Tomahawk cruise missile

Recent reports indicate that land-based versions of the Standard Missile-6 (SM-6) and the Tomahawk cruise missile are among the missile options being considered.

The SM-6, with a range of 350 kilometers (217 miles), and the Tomahawk cruise missile, with a range of 2,500 kilometers (1,553 miles), are formidable choices.

Both missiles are compatible with the U.S. Army's Medium Range Capability System, also known as the Typhoon Weapon System, enhancing the Army's flexibility and adaptability in its deployment strategies.

One of the main advantages of land-based missiles is their improved stealth capabilities. These missiles can potentially evade detection and minimize vulnerability to enemy strikes.

This feature sets them apart from other deterrent options, such as military ships and fighter jets.

In addition, unlike naval assets, these ground-based missiles do not depend on ports or runways, thus offering greater operational flexibility.

Senior Advisor Mark Cancian said Nikkei Asia the urgent need for a similar capability, citing concerns about Chinese missiles posing a threat to U.S. naval bases in the Western Pacific.

He stressed that possessing such capabilities would allow the United States to target Chinese bases without risking the security of ships or aircraft, which could alter power dynamics in the region.

The US military plans to deploy land-based intermediate-range missiles in the Indo-Pacific in 2024, establishing its first arsenal in the region since the end of the Cold War to strengthen deterrence against China.

– Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) December 4, 2023

Deployment plans and speculation: the search for strategic locations

The move marks the first potential deployment of such extended-range missiles following the expiration of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 2019.

The treaty, concluded in 1987, prohibits the United States and Russia from developing and possessing land-based missiles with ranges of 500 kilometers (311 miles) to 5,500 kilometers (3,417 miles).

While the treaty limited the United States and Russia, China continued to expand its missile arsenal during this period.

According to the Pentagon's annual report on China's military power, China has a large arsenal, with about 1,500 munitions with a range of 1,000 kilometers (622 miles) to 5,500 kilometers.

However, U.S. deployment plans remain confidential as to specific locations.

Speculation is arising that Guam, a U.S. territory, could serve as a primary destination for these land-based intermediate-range missiles.

Located approximately 4,000 kilometers (2,485 miles) from the Chinese mainland, Guam's strategic location could facilitate rapid deployment to Asian allies in response to emerging crises.

Reluctance of neighboring countries: sensitivities and geopolitical concerns

Despite this, neighboring countries like Japan and the Philippines are reluctant to host these missiles.

Concerns revolve around the possibility that they could become direct targets of Chinese retaliation if they harbor US missiles.

Nikkei Asia The reports further suggest that, for now, these countries are reluctant to assume such risks, reflecting the complex geopolitical dynamics at play in the region.

Ankit Panda, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, commented on the potential deployment, saying: “These will be permanently deployed to US territories in the region, primarily Guam..”

He did, however, hint at the possibility of allies considering rotational deployments during crises, depending on future political dynamics.

US general confirms deployment of new missiles to face Chinese invasion of Taiwan

The US military plans to deploy new land-based intermediate-range missiles in the Asia-Pacific region to prepare for a situation in which the Chinese regime invades Taiwan. pic.twitter.com/BmnUbZZisJ

– Spotlight on China (@spotlightoncn) November 28, 2023

China's nuclear arsenal and naval force are growing

Meanwhile, in October, the Pentagon also noted China's growing nuclear arsenal in its annual report, with projections indicating a substantial increase in its operational warheads by 2030.

As of May, the Asian superpower had more than 500 operational nuclear warheads, a significant increase from previous estimates.

However, even as China's nuclear capabilities increase, they still lag significantly behind the stockpiles maintained by Russia and the United States.

The United States maintains a large stockpile of approximately 3,700 nuclear warheads, of which approximately 1,419 are deployed for strategic purposes.

Likewise, Russia has approximately 1,550 deployed nuclear weapons, accompanied by a stockpile of 4,489 nuclear warheads, as reported by the Federation of American Scientists.

The latest Pentagon report emphasizes China's rapid modernization and expansion of its nuclear forces, surpassing previous estimates in scale and complexity. This substantial growth reflects China's intensified efforts to diversify and increase its nuclear capabilities over the past decade.

Beyond nuclear weapons, China's naval force has also seen significant expansion. China's navy now has more than 370 ships and submarines, an increase from the 340 reported the previous year.

This expansion aligns with President Xi Jinping's ambition to position China as the region's leading military power.

Notably, China already has the largest navy in the world, further underscoring its maritime aspirations.

Conclusion: shaping the strategic dynamics of the Indo-Pacific

In conclusion, the US military's strategic decision to deploy land-based intermediate-range missiles in the Indo-Pacific region signifies a crucial shift in defense strategy in the face of China's growing military capabilities.

While aiming to strengthen deterrence and maintain regional stability, the move cuts across complex geopolitical sensitivities, shaping power dynamics in the Indo-Pacific for years to come.

As plans unfold and geopolitical landscapes evolve, the deployment of these missiles will undoubtedly continue to attract attention and influence the strategic calculus of nations in the region.