Storms and threat of flooding this evening ahead of a cooler Sunday

Happy Saturday evening everyone. Needless to say, it was hot and humid today, with many highs reaching into the 80s (some even close to 90) this afternoon. It was certainly humid after many saw rain and storms early this morning. Unfortunately, this storm system is right above us for the evening and night ahead. This will keep our First Day Warning in place for some strong to severe storms this evening and a threat of flooding through the night.

While some warm air aloft still tries to keep us quiet to start the early evening, I think we'll see scattered T storms develop this evening. If they manage to become established, we have a Level 2 risk that these storms will be severe until midnight, with wind gusts up to 60 mph and some hail reaching the size of a ping-pong ball. Even if you somehow avoid the risk of severe weather, all of Missouri's Ozarks remain under a flood watch until 1 p.m. Sunday afternoon.

As for our evening storm chances, they should be dispersed throughout the wild as they develop just over the Ozarks. Again, these storms could be capable of some gusty winds and possibly some large hail if they actually manage to establish themselves. It's a threat that I think will last until midnight.

While strong storms are still possible after midnight and into Sunday morning, I think we are primarily transitioning into more periods of heavy rain and flooding as new storms develop over us and arrive from the west during the night.

While I think most of this precipitation should spread eastward by 8 or 9 a.m. Sunday morning, the front moving through the southern Ozarks could keep a few scattered storms in the forecast near the border between the States of Missouri and Arkansas and in northern Arkansas. late Sunday morning and early Sunday afternoon. Once we arrive Sunday evening, we will be done with this system and its chances of rain. However, it is IMPORTANT to know that rain tonight and tomorrow could bring the largest additional rain totals, primarily to the Missouri Ozarks. While some subtle changes in the location of amounts may change (not much, though), we will still have the heaviest rain amounts between 1 and 3 inches on average, with a few isolated higher amounts trying to push near 5 inches. If you must travel late tonight and into tomorrow, watch out for low water crossings and any water that attempts to cover area roads. Turn around. Don't drown.

While rain chances will end throughout the day Sunday, we will also see a partial return of sunshine to try to warm things up. After starting in the mid to 60s Sunday morning, the numbers behind our cold front will be a bit cooler. We're expecting temperatures in the mid to upper 70s across much of the Ozarks for our Sunday afternoon.

With mostly clear skies Sunday evening and mostly sunny skies Monday, this will set us up for pleasant temperatures to start the new work week. After Monday's morning lows in the mid 50s, we will see highs in the upper 70s for many. In addition to these figures, they returned below normal. the dropping humidity should make these numbers really nice.

A quick look at the rest of next week keeps us quiet until next weekend. While I can't rule out a quick upper-level wave on Wednesday trying to bring us a few isolated T storms, I think our next best chance for scattered T storms on a daily basis returns with an upper-level wave returning by Friday and next Saturday. However, this will not prevent temperatures from warming throughout the week.

We will keep high temperatures just below or near normal through Wednesday, in the low to mid 80s. By Thursday and into next weekend, warmer air and more humidity will begin to reappear. This will push high temperatures back into the upper 80s to around 90 late next week.

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