Smoke on the horizon: trends in arms trafficking from the Ukraine conflict

The influx of weapons into Ukraine after Russia's large-scale invasion in February 2022, added to the country's already significant weapons reservoir (especially since the outbreak of the conflict in 2014), has raised concerns about the spread of these weapons in the hands. criminals in Western Europe and their possible effects on organized criminal activities.

Ukraine and its Western partners are aware of the political and criminal risks associated with arms diversion and have put in place strict monitoring mechanisms to track the delivery of weapons. According to Vadym Dzubynskyihead of criminal investigation at the Ukrainian National Police:

All lost and stolen weapons, which currently number 593,000, are all recorded, numbered, and our European partners know these weapons. If such a weapon appears in any country in Europe or the world, we will immediately understand that it is a fake and a fake, that it is the work of Russian special services for the disinformation and speeches about Ukraine.

Ukrainian soldiers interviewed in February 2024 all spoke of strict weapons standards, both during and after their service. But in this nervous climate, possible official shortcomings were closely scrutinized. And while not directly linked to weapons diversion, corruption scandals linked to military procurement in Ukraine have fueled concerns about accountability for equipment used in the war. Analyzing the real risk has become essential to deepen the debate beyond the headlines.

To provide insight into this issue, the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC) created an arms monitoring program (“the Monitor”) in 2023 to track arms flows out of Ukraine and towards Europe.

At the heart of the project was the collection of prices of weapons on the black market, both in Ukraine and in Europe, on the assumption that a comparison of prices in different countries and an analysis of the evolution of these prices would help to shed light on the nature of supply and demand at national and transnational levels. This data comes from underworld and law enforcement contacts in various countries. Qualitative interviews with underworld sources, law enforcement, journalists, activists and others helped flesh out the data picture regarding gun demand among criminals, appetite for risk and potential drivers and barriers. Additionally, the Observatory collected information on firearm seizures and official reports, and commissioned an investigation into dark web markets.

This report summarizes the Observatory's first year of work, covering 2023 and early 2024. Its main conclusion is that the profusion of illegal weapons has so far been limited to Ukraine and that there is no had no verified incidents of organized arms trafficking from Ukraine to EU countries.