Satellite images show new aircraft shelters at Russian airbase near Ukraine border

New aircraft shelters at Marinovka airbase: deception, protection or strategic defense?

Satellite photos show aircraft shelters at Russia's Marinovka air base in Russia's Volgograd region, 300 km from the border with Ukraine. These come after Ukrainian strikes with the ATACMS (army tactical missile system) on the Belbek air base in Crimea on May 15, 2024 and the destruction of an S-400 AD (air defense) system at Mospyne on May 22 and 23.

The attack on Belbek destroyed the MiG-31, MiG-29 and Su-27 fighters, satellite images from Maxar later showed.

Maxar photos show Russia's destroyed MiG-31, MiG-29 and Su-27, as well as a depot at Belbek air base in Russian-occupied Crimea. This will significantly reduce Russia's air raid capabilities. Imagine what these ATACMS could do with the Belgorod airfields, from where Russia bombs Kharkiv. pic.twitter.com/PmJpkMYvdZ

– Sergej Sumlenny, LL.M (@sumlenny) May 17, 2024

There are different assessments of the effectiveness of Marinovka shelters. Even military commentators affiliated with Russia note that its air bases have long lacked such protective hangars and that they arrived late in the war. The images, Google Earth, show “hangars in anticipation of deep strikes from Ukraine,” said Ukrainian military blogger Igor Sushko.

Russia is currently building hangars in anticipation of deep strikes from Ukraine. Marinovka airfield is 300 km from Ukraine and is home to Su-24 and S-34 attack bombers.
It must be nice for Russia to have had almost two and a half years to achieve this, as Ukraine's allies have actively protected these targets. pic.twitter.com/yHAhphMURl

– Igor Souchko (@igorsushko) May 30, 2024

The base is home to the Su-24 Fencer and Su-34 Fullback fighter-bombers. “It must be good for Russia to have had almost two and a half years to achieve this, because Ukraine's allies have been actively protecting these targets.” The photos show 12 of these hangars and four Su-24 aircraft discovered lined up next to each other.

Deception, protection or both?

An example from September 2023 could shed light on current practice. Satellite photos later revealed that Russia had placed rubber “tires” on its bombers at Engels Air Base, perhaps to provide additional protection against strikes by drones and, possibly, Neptune missiles. The base is home to Russian Tu-95 and Tu-160 strategic bombers.

Indeed, the Ukrainian Neptune, originally an anti-ship missile converted for land strike missions, is equipped with a new thermal seeker that will not match the modified infrared signature of the aircraft, compared to that loaded in his memory.

The car's tires were placed on the wings and fuselage. At the time, experts said the tires could also bounce off attacking drones before they could hit the plane's airframe. Even a single hit with a low-explosive warhead is enough to put an aircraft out of action for a long time.

On February 26, 2023, the Belarusian partisan group BYPOL, affiliated with Ukraine, claimed to have damaged an A-50U AWACS (airborne warning and control system) by landing a kamikaze quadcopter on its radar disk at the airbase from Machulishchy in Belarus.

Russian thought

The idea behind the tires, or hangars, could therefore be to make the plane difficult to spot with optical cameras. The possibility that the planes were surrounded by tires serving as decoys cannot be ruled out either. Deceptions force an attacker to hit a false target and, while not always successful, they should also make it more difficult for the opponent to plan. This creates a feeling of doubt as to whether the identified targets are fake or real.

Russia is aware that Ukraine is heavily dependent on Western military supplies, electronic intelligence (ELINT), optical reconnaissance and airborne radar guidance from NATO aircraft such as the AWACS E-3 Sentry, RQ-4 Global Hawk, the RC-135 Rivet and the MQ-9 Reaper. Western military advisers are also unofficially present on the ground.

This means that many resources and man-hours are devoted to planning and conducting attacks by sifting and analyzing optical and electronic intelligence. In the case of Marinovoka, not knowing exactly how many planes and which planes the base hosts makes it difficult for Ukraine to judge its value. Neither Ukraine nor NATO would want to spend resources and time focusing on a single base.

Another distant expectation on the part of Russian planners may be to delay Ukrainian attacks and possibly better understand its planning and NATO surveillance tactics. The above conclusions, however, remain in the realm of speculation.

The inferences are based solely on the fact that Moscow has chosen a long-lasting, attritional “long war” that trades multiple tactical errors for incremental strategic gains. Otherwise, it could simply be a random attempt by the RuMoD (Russian Defense Ministry) to protect the planes, due to the lack of reinforced shelters, especially after the Belbek strike.

“Little, late but not useless”

The main Russian-affiliated Telegram channel, “FighterBomber,” noted both possibilities. “It is clear that these arched canopies were built in haste and because there was nowhere else to go.”

The channel inferred that the new shelters could be built through citizen “donations” – an ongoing crowdfunding effort by Russian telegram “Milbloggers,” to meet the daily needs of its troops on the battlefield. This is to fill the gap left by the larger bureaucratic and public financial hurdles that cover capital expenditure. This initiative benefits from the blessing of the Kremlin, as evidenced by Vladimir Putin's publicized meetings with him.

Noting that “some Department of Defense authorities appear to be reluctantly broadening their minds,” FighterBomber said that finer details like the number of hangars per airfield, the method of installation, whether they would be “reinforced by blocks or embankments”, are not taken into account. known.

A tactical weapons option could be to protect against bomblet-dropping “area weapons” like the M39 or the M39A1 ATACMS missile, which were used in the Belbek and Mospyne strikes. Both carry M74 submunitions in their warhead, with the M39 carrying 950 and the M39A1 containing 300, enough to permanently disable thin-bodied systems like aircraft and AD radars. Militarnyi said the “hangars” are intended to “protect aircraft from attack drones and missiles with a fragmentation warhead.”

But FighterBomber rules out this possibility. These are apparently “light shelters” built with funds from “benevolent citizen sponsors”. “We need large reinforced concrete shelters. The citizens will not be able to manage this.”

However, FighterBomber also recognized its benefits. “First of all, we don’t see how many planes there are. Not where they are located specifically or if they are located at all. Even in the event of a strike, it will be difficult, if not impossible, to achieve real defeating results.”