Russia has forced the West to increase its arms production, even though equipment is no longer being produced

• The demand for and production of Western weapons has increased dramatically.
• This includes equipment that has been around for decades, and even some that has been discontinued.
• Countries want to help Ukraine and develop their own arsenals, but experts believe that too little effort is being made.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine led to an increase in demand, orders and manufacturing of Western weapons, including equipment that was decades old and even equipment that was no longer manufactured.

The invasion has raised concerns across the West that its armies will not have enough munitions and equipment if a major power like Russia decides to attack them.

And also that certain types of particularly essential weapons are experiencing a worrying shortage.

Manufacturing production has increased, but experts warn that this is not enough for the needs of Western countries, neither for themselves nor for what they want to give to Ukraine.

Jan Kallberg, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis and a fellow at the Army Cyber ​​Institute at West Point, describes arms orders as having been relatively small.

“And suddenly they see an increase in sales, a need, a demand that I would say hasn't been seen since the '40s or at least the '50s, when the Cold War really took off,” he told BI.

More orders and manufacturing

Western defense budgets are skyrocketing, while Middle Eastern countries are also increasing their spending due to conflicts in the region.

The result is an increase in orders and manufacturing, even of Western equipment that had been stopped producing.

In January, the U.S. Army signed a $50 million contract to restart production of M777 howitzer parts — the first new order in five years — that will be sent to Ukraine.

Norway plans to invest to improve delivery times for its National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) in response to rising demand in Europe.

The U.S. military also placed a new $1.9 billion order for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), which have been successfully used in Ukraine.

Its manufacturer, Lockheed Martin, is increasing its production as well as that of the anti-tank missile system.

German arms manufacturer Diehl plans to increase production of the IRIS-T air defense system, while France has ordered companies involved in manufacturing Aster air defense missiles to prioritize such contracts.

Demand for the Patriot surface-to-air missile system, first used in the 1990s but since modernized, has also increased dramatically, with a coalition of European countries jointly ordering up to 1,000 missiles earlier this year.

Lockheed Martin said Patriot missile production increased from 350 per year in 2018 to 500 last year and 550 this year.

Timothy Wright, a missile technology expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said the scale of the production increase relative to actual demand shows that industries and governments have not responded sufficiently.

“I don't think we've learned the whole lesson yet,” he said.

The US appears to be aware of the backlog, with the Financial Times reporting last month that the US was suspending open orders for Patriot interceptor missiles until Ukraine is better supplied.

Mark Cancian, a defense strategy expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said many of the new orders are for air defense systems.

The West stopped investing in these technologies after the Cold War, when it stopped seeing Russia as the main threat, he said, but now, seeing the salvos of Russian missiles and drones, demand is back.

Ready for Russia

Western militaries have not spent the past few decades building their arsenals with a major adversary like Russia in mind, experts warn.

Russia has one of the largest armies in the world and its war in Ukraine shows that it is prepared to engage in a brutal and bitter fight with heavy losses.

Russia has also increased its production of war weapons, which could help it in the future and not only against Ukraine.

Some European countries have warned that Russia could soon attack another European nation if it wins in Ukraine.

This would likely draw the United States into a larger war, due to NATO's collective defense clause.

Slow progress

Ukraine has used many different weapons in its response to Russia and has had notable successes despite not having the most advanced or modern equipment in the West.

Mattias Eken, a missile defense expert at the RAND Corporation, said the West will be “reassured” by how its equipment “works and sometimes does some pretty amazing things.”

But, he warns, “the problem is mass.”

Ukraine's allies want enough equipment to be able to give more to Ukraine and to strengthen their own arsenals.

This dual need has been a problem for Ukraine. Some European countries have cited the need to keep their own arsenals full as a reason why they cannot give Ukraine more.

On air defense, Cancian said: “Everyone agrees there is not enough. They have accelerated production to some extent, but there is a limit to what you can do.”

Giorgio Di Mizio, an air warfare expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said the problem is demand versus capability, not countries' reluctance to spend.

Manufacturing new equipment takes time and delays are significant.

Industrial production will have to increase more significantly to solve these problems.

But Kallberg believes the industry needs assurances. “If you were a defense industry executive, you would ask yourself, 'If I increase production now, what kind of commitment can I get from governments to keep buying?'”

One solution would have been for countries to increase their orders and production earlier in the war, Di Mizio said.

“Perhaps governments saw this war as a short-term problem,” he said. But it is easy to criticize today, with hindsight.

He also said the defense industry had a way of working more suited to peacetime than war, “and we haven't made any changes.”