Russia could still attack Ukraine with nuclear weapons

Summary and key points: The war in Ukraine has revived the possibility of nuclear war for the first time since the Cold War. In the early months of the conflict, there was widespread fear that Russian President Vladimir Putin would order a tactical nuclear strike to avoid defeat.

– Although the situation has stabilized somewhat, the US and Western governments remain vigilant, with contingency plans in place for a possible Russian nuclear strike. Russia's nuclear arsenal is vast, including 1,710 warheads deployed and thousands more in storage, with a robust nuclear triad including land-based missiles, submarines and strategic bombers.

-The potential use of nuclear weapons by Russia, although currently considered unlikely, remains a major concern, especially if the conflict turns against Moscow again.

The war in Ukraine made nuclear war possible for the first time since the Cold War.

In the early months of the war, when things looked particularly bad for Russian forces – not that it was better now, but things had stabilized – there was real fear in the United States and the West that the Russian President Vladimir Putin orders a tactical nuclear strike against Ukraine to avoid a humiliating defeat.

By late 2022, the CIA and other government departments and agencies had contingency plans in the event of a Russian nuclear attack on Ukraine. Such a strike would most likely be tactical, meaning it would directly target part of the battlefield, rather than destroying a city.

But what is the current state of Russia's nuclear arsenal and is Moscow still considering a nuclear strike against its adversary?

Nuclear weapons and decisions

In its latest report on Russia's nuclear arsenal, the Congressional Research Service estimates that the Russian military currently has 1,710 nuclear warheads deployed (and several thousand more in storage). Additionally, the US government estimates the number of Russian tactical nuclear weapons at between 1,000 and 2,000 warheads.

The Russian army has a nuclear triad. On the ground, Moscow has 326 intercontinental ballistic missiles. At sea, the Russian Navy deploys 12 ballistic missile submarines capable of carrying a total of 192 nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles. In the air, the Russian Aerospace Forces flies 58 strategic bombers capable of launching or dropping a nuclear munition.

Even though the war is currently proceeding more favorably for the Kremlin, the U.S. government continues to believe that if Russia's situation weakens again, Putin and his Kremlin advisors would resurface the option of a nuclear strike.

“Given the potential desperation of President Putin and the Russian leadership, given the setbacks they have suffered so far on the military front, none of us can take lightly the threat posed by a potential appeal tactical nuclear weapons or low-yield nuclear weapons,” he added. ” CIA Director Bill Burns said at a recent event in Atlanta.

Clearly, the Russian military has the capabilities to carry out a nuclear attack. Much then depends on Russia's political will. A nuclear strike would likely have serious consequences for Russia, including the possibility of a retaliatory strike from the United States.

“We're obviously very concerned. I know that President Biden is deeply concerned about avoiding a third world war, avoiding a threshold at which, you know, nuclear conflict becomes possible,” added Burns, who specializes in Russia and served as an American advisor. ambassador to Moscow.

A Russian nuclear attack on Ukraine would be the first detonation of nuclear weapons since the U.S. military dropped two bombs on Imperial Japan in the final days of World War II.

About the Author:

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist, specializing in special operations and a veteran of the Hellenic Army (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from Johns Hopkins University and an MS from the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins. His work has been featured in Business Insider, SandboxAnd SOFREP.

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