Report to Congress on Russian Nuclear Weapons

The following is the May 21, 2024 Congressional Research Service In Focus report, Russia's Nuclear Weapons.

From the report

Russia poses an “acute threat” to the United States and its allies, according to the 2022 National Defense Strategy. The 2022 Nuclear Posture Review, a review of U.S. nuclear policy by the Biden administration, states:

Russia remains the United States' rival, with the most capable and diverse nuclear forces. Today, it is unique in the combination of strategic and non-strategic nuclear forces it has, enabling nuclear employment ranging from large-scale attacks against [U.S.] the homeland to limited strikes in support of a regional military campaign [in the Euro-Atlantic region].

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin has threatened to use nuclear weapons against the West, said Russia had deployed non-strategic nuclear weapons on its ally Belarus and declared the suspension of certain Russian obligations under the New START treaty that limit U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear forces. Congress could choose to examine U.S. deterrence and risk reduction policy toward Russia.

Force structure

According to a recent non-governmental estimate, Russia has approximately 1,710 deployed nuclear warheads, based on a triad of strategic delivery systems including approximately 326 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), 12 guided-missile submarines (SSBNs), and 192 ballistic missiles. launched from a submarine (SLBM). ), and 58 strategic bombers. Russia has not exchanged official data with the United States on its strategic nuclear force structure since 2023. Russian officials have said, however, that Russia continues to respect New START limits, roughly maintaining the parity with American strategic nuclear forces. According to a non-governmental estimate, the United States has deployed approximately 1,770 nuclear warheads.

Russia is completing a modernization of its strategic nuclear forces which includes the development of the heavy ICBM SS-X-29 (Sarmat), the ICBM SS-27 Mod 2 (Yars) and the Dolgorukiy class SSBN (Borei ), according to a 2024 assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). Russia deploys the majority of its strategic nuclear warheads on ICBMs. A separate Russian military service, the Strategic Rocket Forces, commands these mobile and silo-based ICBMs. Russia can deploy most of its ICBMs and all of its SLBMs with multiple warheads on each missile, according to a non-governmental source.

Russia also has a variety of dual-capable systems (which can use conventional or nuclear warheads), including precision strike missiles, of different ranges and launch modes, which are not limited by any arms control agreement . The Russian military could deploy these systems with nuclear warheads, allowing them to be used as non-strategic nuclear weapons. Russia has rejected U.S. efforts to negotiate limits on Russian nonstrategic nuclear weapons, describing the weapons as compensation for U.S. and NATO conventional superiority. The State Department estimated in 2024 that the Russian military had between 1,000 and 2,000 nuclear warheads for non-strategic weapons; non-governmental organizations attribute 1,558 warheads to these systems.

Russian officials have expressed concerns about the survivability of Russia's strategic nuclear forces, given advances in long-range conventional strikes and U.S. missile defenses. In 2018, President Putin announced that Russia was developing new delivery vehicles, including a hypersonic ICBM-mounted glider vehicle, a nuclear-powered cruise missile, and a nuclear-capable autonomous underwater system. According to the testimony of General Gregory Guillot, commander of NORTHCOM in 2024, “Russia wants these systems to challenge American defenses and guarantee Russia's ability to retaliate after a first strike”.

Download the document here.

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