Proposed Gaza ceasefire puts Netanyahu at crossroads that could shape his legacy

TEL AVIV, Israel — The ceasefire proposal announced by President Joe Biden has placed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at a crossroads, with either path likely to shape the Israeli leader's legacy the oldest and deeply controversial.

The proposal offers the chance to end Israel's war against Hamas, return many hostages held by the Islamic militant group, calm the northern border with Lebanon and potentially advance a historic deal to normalize ties with Saudi Arabia.

But it would also risk shattering Netanyahu's governing coalition, potentially sending him back into opposition and making him more vulnerable to conviction in his corruption trial. The complete withdrawal of Israeli forces provided for in the agreement could allow Hamas to claim victory and reconstitute itself.

On the other hand, Netanyahu's rejection of the deal could deepen Israel's international isolation, worsen ties with a U.S. administration eager to end the war and expose it to accusations of abandoning the hostages for save his skin.

It's a conundrum, and it may explain the strange choreography of Biden's speech Friday night: a US president announcing what he says is an Israeli proposal, on the Jewish Sabbath, while the Israeli political class remains largely silent.

Netanyahu acknowledged the proposal, which was shared with Hamas through mediators, but later appeared to contradict Biden's remarks. He said Israel remained committed to dismantling Hamas' military and government capabilities and that any talk of a permanent ceasefire before then was a “failure.”

On Monday, he said destroying Hamas was “part of the proposal” and reportedly told a closed-door parliamentary hearing that Israel reserved the right to return to war if its goals were not achieved.

But it was never clear what the destruction of Hamas entailed or even whether it was possible. Biden said Israel had degraded Hamas to the point that it could no longer carry out an October 7-type attack, and that by continuing the war, Israel risked getting bogged down in Gaza.

But Netanyahu appears to be seeking a much bigger victory.

“NETANYAHU’S ENDGAME IS TO SURVIVE”

Netanyahu's critics fear he will reject any ceasefire aimed at appeasing his ultranationalist ruling partners, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. They want to continue the war, completely reoccupy Gaza and rebuild Jewish settlements there.

They have already promised to leave the government if the proposal announced by Biden comes to fruition. Netanyahu's political opponents have offered a safety net if he reaches a deal to free the hostages, but they are unlikely to help him stay in power in the long term.

“Everything that Ben-Gvir and Smotrich demand or threaten to do, you see, Netanyahu is very attentive to it,” said Tal Schneider, an Israeli political commentator. “The end game for Netanyahu is to survive.”

Netanyahu's current government, formed in late 2022 after five consecutive elections, is the most nationalist and religious in Israeli history. Months before the war, he promoted policies that consolidated Israel's occupation of the West Bank, strengthened the ultra-Orthodox Jewish community's dependence on state subsidies, and launched an overhaul of the justice system who tore the country apart.

The coalition initially had a slim majority of 64 seats in the 120-seat Israeli Parliament – ​​enough to govern but with a fragility that would keep Netanyahu's fate tied to the whims of the smaller parties that form the government.

A VETERAN OF “DIFFICULT” POLITICS

Shortly after the October 7 Hamas attack sparked the war in Gaza, Benny Gantz, a former military leader and Netanyahu's main political rival, joined the government in a show of unity. Netanyahu, Gantz and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant formed a three-man war cabinet to lead the offensive.

Mazal Mualem, Netanyahu's biographer, said those efforts were largely successful in marginalizing ultranationalists and allowing Netanyahu to govern according to a more pragmatic model that defined his 17 years in office dating back to the 1990s.

She highlighted Israel's limited response to an airstrike by Iran in April, which Ben-Gvir called “weak,” and the ceasefire and hostage release agreement reached with Hamas in November, which Smotrich initially opposed but later voted for.

“Over the years, Bibi has taught himself to do what he wants in difficult political environments,” she said, referring to Netanyahu by his popular nickname.

But Gantz has threatened to leave the government unless Netanyahu presents a post-war plan by June 8, which would make him far more dependent on Smotrich and Ben-Gvir.

Netanyahu's decision to continue Israel's massive military campaign in Gaza while many hostages languish in captivity has exposed him to harsh criticism from many Israelis, including the captives' families. Thousands of people participated in the weekly mass protests.

“The Israeli government has given up on hostages,” Yehi Yehud, whose adult child is being held hostage in Gaza, told Israeli Army Radio. “Bibi, you have neither the permission nor the moral validity to sacrifice them on the altar of your political survival.”

OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS

Netanyahu's hard line has also taken a toll on Israel's relations with its closest ally, the United States, which has provided crucial military support but has expressed exasperation over civilian casualties and lack of plans. realistic Israelis for the post-war period.

Internationally, it has exposed Israel to accusations of genocide, which it denies, and a possible international arrest warrant for Netanyahu himself.

In his speech Friday, Biden appeared to offer Netanyahu a way out: claim victory by asserting that a battered Hamas can no longer mount an October 7-style attack, bring all the hostages home and then work with the United States and Arab countries to build a new regional security architecture.

But the fear of losing power could prevail.

Netanyahu has spent years maintaining the image that he alone can lead Israel through its myriad diplomatic and security challenges. That legacy suffered a major blow on October 7, with many Israelis directly blaming him for the most devastating security failure in the country's history. Public opinion polls indicate Netanyahu is trailing Gantz and would struggle to form a government if elections were held today.

For all their threats, his far-right allies find themselves in a similar predicament. They would likely join him in opposition if early elections were held, losing the power he gave them over the Israeli police and settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank.

If Netanyahu manages to maintain his coalition until the next elections scheduled for 2026, he may be able to restore his image. His poll numbers have already begun to climb from the depths reached after October 7, as he presents himself as resisting international pressure to end the war.

Aviv Bushinsky, a former Netanyahu adviser, said Netanyahu's wartime decision-making had less to do with immediate political survival than with ensuring a legacy that would not be entirely eclipsed by October 7. This requires some kind of victory over Hamas.

“From a historical perspective, the only option for Netanyahu is to go through with it,” he said. Ben-Gvir and Smotrich “help him reach this destination, to keep his head above water”.

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