Only a lasting ceasefire in Gaza will allow Biden to escape – POLITICO

Unsurprisingly, Blinken got what he wanted from Gantz, who said in a statement that it was “imperative” that the Biden-endorsed deal be implemented. Gallant, however, was much more cautious, thanking Blinken for his efforts, while emphasizing Israel's “commitment to dismantling Hamas as a governmental and military authority” in Gaza.

Indeed, Gallant's main political gripe with Netanyahu is not about a hostage deal, but the lack of a post-war Israeli governance plan for Gaza – something Biden has also begged for Israel has been proposing for months. But Gallant is not going to break Netanyahu's unruly coalition over the hostage deal – the ruling Likud party would never forgive him if he did.

As such, all Blinken can show through his efforts is support for the hostage deal from ultra-Orthodox politicians from the Shas and United Torah Judaism parties. And although both are members of Netanyahu's governing coalition, they are unlikely to be willing to overthrow his government either: according to a poll by the Israel Institute of Democracy, a majority of their traditional voters are in favor to give priority to the military operation in Gaza rather than the recovery of hostages. back.

The Biden administration can at least take some comfort from the same poll, which suggests that a majority of Jewish Israelis view the hostage deal as the highest national priority. But the bad news is that this is not the case for right-wing voters who broadly support the coalition – and coalition parties are likely to pay attention to their voters rather than protesters and hostage families.

With their eyes on the US elections, Biden and his aides arguably jumped too quickly to promote a deal that was not yet ready and had not yet been approved by all members of the Israeli government. Ultranationalist ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir now believe that any lasting truce will result in the resurrection of Hamas in Gaza; and Netanyahu can hardly end the war when Hamas can still fire rockets at Israel and is mounting a small-group insurgency in northern Gaza – which was supposed to be eliminated by the IDF.

Thus, as with previous agreements discussed in recent months, this one also risks being left aside in the face of Israel's refusal to accept a definitive end to hostilities before having achieved its main war objectives. . The flip side, of course, is that the Palestinian militant group remains adamant that it will not agree to a temporary ceasefire either.