On Russian military activity near Kharkiv

Russia has launched an offensive towards Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city. Although the scope and scale of this operation remains unknown at present, early activities near the small town of Vovchansk, closer to the Russian border, suggest that the Russian army is short of manpower. to seize Kharkiv and that it might not even achieve its more limited objective of putting the city under threat of artillery and rocket fire. However, one of the goals that Russia has achieved is to attract Ukrainian reserves to another front and weaken Ukrainian defenses. This is a dangerous development before Russia launches the most intense phase of its summer offensive.

It appears that another operation could be attempted further north, towards the city of Sumy, in order to further disperse Ukrainian forces over a wider front. The fact is that Ukraine has been expecting these attacks for months. Unfortunately, national leaders and local governors have not done enough to strengthen border defenses and establish strong fortifications in these areas. This is a real failure of the Ukrainian leaders.

The other factor, however, is that the United States and its European allies limit the use of Western weapons on Russian soil. This restriction aims to reduce the possibility of Russian escalation and retaliation against the West. It is an irrational constraint. The West does not use these weapons. When we sell weapons to another country, we do not impose such drastic constraints on use. Additionally, when Russian weapons are used to attack the West, Russia is not considered a warring party. This constraint only concerns Ukraine and is entirely due to Russia's nuclear desires.

This pattern of American behavior is very worrying and detrimental to its interests. Consider another scenario in which Russia attacks NATO. Do we coordinate our defense only on NATO territory? What if Russia launched rockets and artillery from its side of the border at American targets, do we allow that to happen and do we allow American troops to die? The fact is that in this scenario, munitions launched from within Russian borders are considered relevant targets in the theater of war. The destruction of these targets would be entirely appropriate and would not involve a broader attack or threaten the Russian regime. The same argument should be applied to Ukraine today. Ukraine should be able to retaliate and preempt Russian attacks in this border region in order to properly defend itself. Current policy harms Ukraine's war efforts as well as NATO's deterrence. We should not set standards that handicap our immediate or long-term interests.

As Ukraine's second-largest city and a historic industrial center, Kharkiv represents a major pressure point for the Ukrainian government. A new Russian offensive would likely result in the displacement of the city's remaining population and an unimaginable number of civilian casualties. By targeting the city, Russia likely seeks to divert Ukrainian resources and attention away from the line of contact in Donetsk Oblast and force kyiv to expand its capabilities over a wider geographic area. This offensive would be a waste of Ukrainian military activity in Donetsk and aims to destabilize kyiv as Western-supplied equipment arrives in the coming weeks. Furthermore, it is also possible that the Russian military is launching this offensive with the aim of achieving as many gains as possible on the battlefield before the munitions and equipment allocated by the recent US security program reach the limit. contact line. In Ukraine, Kharkiv has been subject to almost nightly attacks by the Russian army since the start of the war. However, what differentiates Kharkiv from kyiv and many cities in central and western Ukraine is that it is far enough east that Moscow can use Russian territory as a staging base and launching point for its attacks. Over the past two years, ballistic missiles have been frequently launched at Kharkiv from its Russian sister city, Belgorod. The White House's demand that Ukraine exercise restraint in its strikes on targets within the Russian Federation has provided Moscow with a safe zone to amass troops and equipment with impunity. If kyiv had permission to use ATACMS and other systems to strike military targets in Russian oblasts bordering Ukraine (as is the case in Crimea and other occupied territories), it It is very unlikely that Moscow will be able to organize this offensive.

From the author's blog Why It Matters. View the original here.