North Korea has a powerful arsenal of weapons and munitions that Russia desperately needs as it eats into its own stockpiles in its fight against Ukraine.

• Kim Jong Un is making a rare visit to Russia this week for a meeting with Putin.

• U.S. officials believe the two will discuss North Korea's supply of weapons to Russia for its war in Ukraine.

• North Korea has a formidable arsenal of artillery and munitions that could bolster Russia's dwindling supplies.

As Russia exhausts its ammunition reserves in Ukraine, it desperately seeks support from its few allies.

This includes North Korea, which has a formidable artillery supply that could provide Moscow with exactly what it needs for its ongoing war efforts.

This week, the leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), Kim Jong Un, is traveling to Russia to meet with President Vladimir Putin. This is Kim's first known international trip in more than four years, with the last also being to Russia in 2019 for a summit with Putin regarding North Korea's nuclear program.

Their next discussions will likely focus on Russia's growing need for munitions for its ongoing war in Ukraine.

Although Moscow could soon increase its production to around 2 million shells per year, that number will still fall short of its wartime needs. It also pales in comparison to what Russia uses. Last week, a Western official told the BBC that Russia was estimated to have fired between 10 and 11 million rounds into Ukraine last year after its first large-scale invasion.

With a clear need for firepower and a dwindling pool of allies to get it, Russia turns to North Korea. But even though this decision seems frantic, it is also calculated. North Korea makes headlines for its nuclear weapons program, but the dictatorship also has a threatening artillery presence that could give Russia the stopgap it needs to continue attacking Ukraine.

In 2020, think tank Rand Corp estimated that North Korea maintains around 6,000 lethal artillery systems within range of major South Korean population centers, including Seoul. Rand made a frightening estimate: If these artillery systems were deployed, they could potentially kill more than 10,000 people in an hour.

And those are just the systems within range of South Korea. The regime likely has much more in reserve – and according to a 2021 report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, North Korea also has around 5,500 rocket artillery systems, 4,000 tanks and 2,500 armored vehicles.

One of the key takeaways from Rand's study was that “bombing the DPRK could kill several thousand people in just an hour, with little warning” and “that it would be difficult for the Republic to Korea (ROK) and the United States, once the bombing begins, to stop or otherwise protect the population of the Republic of Korea, before it can cause serious damage. »

“Therefore, it is in the interest of all relevant actors to de-escalate as quickly as possible once a cycle of provocation begins and to avoid conditions that could lead to a costly and bloody exchange of military firepower “, the report added.

It's a stunning scenario that speaks to North Korea's military might — one that adds weight to the pariah country's decades-long threat of turning its enemies into a “sea of ​​fire.”

Rand's report also notes that it could be difficult for South Korea and the United States to target North Korean artillery units hidden and safe from counterfire. But most experts say there would be a harsh response from Seoul and Washington if North Korea follows through on its threats.

Despite the DPRK's formidable conventional capabilities – and its increasingly menacing missile tests – it is not entirely clear that all of the country's weapons work.

Several experts said some of Kim's stockpiles were aging and ineffective, while Ukrainian soldiers said North Korean-made rockets found in Ukraine were “unreliable and sometimes did crazy things.” The DPRK has previously denied accusations that it supplied weapons to the Russian military.

Russia's most recent efforts to get more aid from North Korea came in late July, when Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu made a state visit to the isolated country during celebrations marking the 70 years since the Korean War armistice in 1953.

During the trip, Shoigu and Kim toured North Korea's new weapons, including the Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile.

A White House official said Shoigu also visited Pyongyang “in an effort to convince North Korea to sell munitions to Russia to support the Russian war.”

“To this end, our information indicates that Russia is seeking to increase its military cooperation with the DPRK, including through the sale of artillery munitions to Russia,” said House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby. White.

As Putin and Kim meet, it appears we could see more progress on aid. But any successful military aid to Russia will come at a cost, provided Russia has the things – potentially food and support from international bodies – that North Korea needs in return.

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