North Korea claims to have used new weapon

A weapons test this week has become the latest point of contention between North and South Korea, with Pyongyang claiming it fired an advanced multi-warhead missile and Seoul accusing them of lying.

Hours after North Korean state media hailed the “success” of its test and released photos as evidence on Thursday, the South called it “deception and exaggeration” and released its own evidence pointing to failure.

Analysts, however, remain uncertain about the veracity of the North's claims.

The dispute underscores the complexity of vetting North Korea's weapons development, which continues to advance despite tough international sanctions.

If North Korea's latest claims are true, this would represent significant progress in its missile program.

Multiple warhead missiles are difficult to counter and their technology is complex to develop. Currently, only the United States – which was the first to develop it in the 1960s – as well as the United Kingdom, France, Russia and China are known to possess these capabilities.

Pyongyang now claims it is close to achieving this as well.

For some time now, experts have been discussing the possibility that North Korea might one day develop MIRV capabilities.

MIRV means multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles. The technology involves attaching multiple nuclear warheads to a single missile that would separate after launch. The warheads would then be propelled by their own rockets to hit various targets.

They can be released at different speeds and in multiple directions, allowing them to hit targets hundreds of kilometers away. This is what makes these weapons particularly effective.

Pyongyang announced Thursday that it had “successfully carried out the test of separation and guidance of individual mobile warheads” the day before. The weapon, it said, used the first stage engine of an intermediate-range solid-propellant ballistic missile and deployed three warheads plus a decoy.

The missile flew a “shortened range” of 170 to 200 km (105 to 124 miles) to ensure security and measure warhead flights, state media said. The warheads were each “properly guided” towards their targets while anti-aircraft radar found that the decoy had also deployed effectively.

The test was of “great importance to strengthen” their missile forces and aimed to “secure MIRV capability,” which was defined as a top priority.

The South Korean military, however, was quick to refute the claims, saying that “the flight was not normal” and that the weapon had exploded in mid-air.

The military released video of the test, in which it said the first stage showed unstable flight that led to a mid-flight explosion. Military officials said they detected a large amount of debris, more than would be expected from a successful test.

They also said that North Korean photos showing the warheads and flares separating from the missile were actually photos from an intercontinental ballistic missile test conducted in March.

Analysts cited by South Korea's Yonhap news agency noted that the range of the test was more typical of intercontinental ballistic missile tests. They also believed the missile may have had insufficient guidance and control systems.

Other experts believe that parts of the test were successful, although much remains unknown.

Yang Uk, a researcher at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, told the BBC that while he believed the flight and separation of the warheads had worked, “North Korea has not revealed evidence that the warheads warheads hit their targets – we can't say they succeeded here.”

Japan's defence ministry said the missile reached a maximum altitude of 100km. This meant it did not enter space but remained in the Earth's atmosphere. Dr Yang said this also meant that “the warheads have not been tested for the high heat and pressure that follow atmospheric re-entry, so we cannot know their capabilities”.

The weapons test was spotted by South Koreans living near the border, and a video released by South Korean media, taken by a civilian observer, showed a visible condensation trail in the sky.

Vann Van Diepen, a North Korean weapons expert and former U.S. State Department official, said the video “does not appear to indicate a large explosion or catastrophic failure,” and that the contrail appeared consistent with the photos. North Korean state media.

“But that does not rule out a more subtle failure,” he added, stressing that there was no independent evidence that warheads had been dropped and had managed to fly on their own.

Whatever the truth about the test's success, what is clearer is that North Korea would still have reaped some gains.

Observers point out that Pyongyang may have obtained useful technical data during the launch, bringing it one step closer to achieving MIRV capability, a goal publicly set by the North Korean government in 2021.

The MIRV missiles would be appreciated given their “productivity,” Van Diepen said, particularly in a situation where North Korea might have a depleted missile arsenal following an enemy first strike.

This week's test, even if successful, would not be enough to complete the development of such a weapon, but he said the North Koreans were “at least a few years away” from achieving that goal.

The timing of the test – days before a planned plenary meeting in which North Korean officials will gather to review their work during the first half of the year – may not be a coincidence. According to other experts, the aim could be to highlight military achievements.

It would also have sent a message of continued defiance and a signal of the country's development capabilities to its enemies.

Washington has not reacted to the latest test, apart from issuing a brief joint statement with Japan and South Korea condemning it. But Mr. Van Diepen said the U.S. government, which would have the best resources to analyze North Korea's weapons tests, could and should shed more light.

“Otherwise, the North gets a free propaganda victory. »

Additional reporting by Jake Kwon and Rachel Lee