North Korea claims it fired new weapon

A weapons test this week has become the latest point of contention between North and South Korea, with Pyongyang claiming it fired an advanced, multi-warhead missile and Seoul accusing them of lying.

Hours after North Korean state media hailed the “success” of their test and released photos as proof on Thursday, the South called it a “deception and exaggeration” and released its own evidence saying a failure.

Analysts remain uncertain about the veracity of the North's claims.

The dispute underscores the complexity of verifying North Korea's weapons development, which continues to advance despite tough international sanctions.

If North Korea's latest claims are true, they would represent a significant advancement in its missile program.

Multiple warhead missiles are difficult to counter and their technology is complex to develop. Currently, only the United States – which was the first to develop it in the 1960s – as well as the United Kingdom, France, Russia and China are known to possess these capabilities.

Pyongyang is now announcing loud and clear that it is also on the verge of achieving this.

For some time now, experts have raised the possibility that North Korea will eventually develop MIRV capabilities.

MIRV stands for “Independently Targeting Multiple Reentry Vehicle”. This technology consists of attaching several warheads to a single missile which would separate after launch. The warheads would then be propelled by their own rockets to hit various targets.

They can be launched at different speeds and in several directions, allowing them to reach targets hundreds of kilometers away. This is what makes these weapons particularly effective.

Pyongyang said on Thursday that it had “successfully completed the separation control and guidance test of individual mobile warheads” the day before. The weapon, according to the statement, used the first stage engine of an intermediate-range solid-fuel ballistic missile and deployed three warheads plus a decoy.

The missile flew a “shortened range” of 170 to 200 km (105 to 124 miles) to ensure safety and measure the warheads' flights, state media said. The warheads were each “correctly guided” to their targets while anti-aircraft radar found that the decoy had also deployed effectively.

The test was of “great importance to strengthen” their missile forces and aimed to “secure MIRV capability,” which was defined as a top priority.

The South Korean military, however, quickly denied the allegations, saying the “flight was not normal” and that the weapon had exploded in mid-air.

He released a video of the test he had filmed, saying the initial phase showed unstable flight that led to an in-flight explosion. Military officials said they detected a large amount of debris, more than would result from a successful test.

They also said North Korean photos showing warheads and decoys separating from the missile were actually photos from an intercontinental ballistic missile test conducted in March.

Analysts cited by South Korea's Yonhap news agency noted that the range of the test was more typical of intercontinental ballistic missile tests. They also believed the missile may have had insufficient guidance and control systems.

Other experts believe that some parts of the test were successful, although much remains unknown.

Yang Uk, a researcher at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, told the BBC that while he believed the flight and separation of the warheads had worked, “North Korea has not revealed evidence that the warheads warheads hit their targets – we can't say they succeeded here.”

The Japanese Defense Ministry said the missile reached a maximum altitude of 100 km. This means it did not enter space and remained in the Earth's atmosphere. According to Dr. Yang, this also means that “nuclear warheads have not been tested for the high heat and pressure that follow atmospheric reentry, so we cannot know their capabilities.”

The weapons test was spotted by South Koreans living near the border, and a video released by South Korean media, taken by a civilian observer, showed a visible condensation trail in the sky.

Vann Van Diepen, a North Korean weapons expert and former U.S. State Department official, said the video “does not appear to indicate a large explosion or catastrophic failure,” and that the contrail appeared consistent with photos from North Korean state media.

“But that does not rule out a more subtle failure,” he added, noting that there was no independent evidence that warheads were released and flew successfully on their own.

Whatever the truth about the test's success, what is clearer is that North Korea would still have reaped some gains.

Observers point out that Pyongyang may have obtained useful technical data during the launch, bringing it one step closer to achieving MIRV capability, a goal publicly set by the North Korean government in 2021.

The MIRV missiles would be prized given their “productivity,” Van Diepen said, particularly in a situation where North Korea might have a depleted missile arsenal after a first strike by an enemy.

This week's test, even if successful, would not be enough to complete the development of such a weapon, but he estimated that the North Koreans were “at least a few years away” from that goal.

The timing of the test, days before a plenary meeting where North Korean officials are due to gather to review their work in the first half of the year, may not be a coincidence. It could aim to highlight the army's achievements, other experts say.

It would also have sent a message of continued defiance and a signal of the country's growing capabilities to its enemies.

Washington did not react much to this latest test, other than a short joint statement with Japan and South Korea condemning the incident. But Mr. Van Diepen said the U.S. government, which has the best resources to analyze North Korea's weapons tests, could and should shed more light on what happened.

“Otherwise, the North gets a free propaganda victory.”

Additional reporting by Jake Kwon and Rachel Lee