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Since the methodologies of these two reports are different, it is not uncommon for them to show different trends in a given year, said Richard Rosenfeld, a criminology professor at the University of Missouri who recently wrote on this discrepancy for the Council on Criminal Justice. Over the past 30 years, the difference in year-over-year violence trends between these two reports has never been greater than last year.

In 2021, the FBI changed how it collects data from police departments, and as a result, that year's crime data missed nearly 40% of police departments. Bureau analysts estimated the missing data using statistical modeling, but the change led to the most incomplete picture of national crime since the FBI began collecting data in the 1930s. which has created confusion about changing crime trends. Last year, the FBI reversed the change and restarted the previously retired data collection system. They also gave agencies that did not submit data for 2021 the option to submit their data retrospectively. Nearly 2,500 agencies took up the FBI's offer and submitted crime data through the old system for 2022, but it's unclear how many did so for 2021.

Experts said the lingering effect of this transition could explain why the 2021-2022 trend is unreliable: If 2021 crime data remains incomplete, it is difficult to compare it with 2022 data.

These data gaps and disagreements create more space for politicians to craft murky and baseless narratives. When Florida Governor Ron DeSantis announced his candidacy for president, for example, he touted that Florida's crime rate had reached an all-time high under his administration. But he failed to mention that he relied on a crime rate estimate that lacked data from about half of the state's law enforcement agencies, which policed ​​40 percent of the state's population. State.

The FBI said it could not address the discrepancy between its crime data and the BJS victimization survey because it “could not comment on another agency's report.”

In an interview, BJS statisticians said that there is no single factor that can clearly explain this discrepancy: the victimization survey and police statistics are designed to complement each other and often reflect different aspects of criminal justice and victim issues.

“It would be nice to know what's going on with violent crime rates,” Richard Rosenfeld said. “But having two contrasting reports both from the Justice Department allows politicians, or anyone else with a horse in the race, to simply cherry-pick the estimate that best fits their expectations. [priorities] and ignore the other.”