Joe Biden is right that violent crime is near a 50-year low

As President Joe Biden runs for re-election, Republicans have claimed he is responsible for high levels of crime. Biden responded by saying that violent crime actually fell under his watch.

In a May 15 speech at a National Police Memorial service at the U.S. Capitol, Biden told officers and other attendees: “You risk your lives every day for the safety of people you don't even know. This is why each and every one of you is a hero. It’s no coincidence that violent crime is near its lowest level in 50 years.”

Official FBI crime data tends to lag, but available measures show that violent crime has declined overall under Biden's presidency. But is violent crime “close to a 50-year high,” as Biden said?

We checked the FBI data and found that he was right on target.

The White House did not respond to a request for this article.

Four types of crimes make up the FBI's definition of violent crime: homicide, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault.

Over the past six decades, the FBI's methodology has changed slightly, leading to long-term apples-to-oranges comparisons. Notably, the FBI changed its definition of rape in 2013 to expand the types of physical contact considered rape. This means that recent rape data shows more cases, making the overall rate of violent crime higher than under the old definition.

To test Biden's claim, we used an FBI criminal data set assembled by Jeff Asher, an analyst for AH Datalytics. Asher collected the data from 1960 to 2022, using data from the original definition of rape to allow for an apples-to-apples comparison over time.

Generally speaking, the violent crime rate increased during the 1970s and 1980s, peaking in 1991 and declining since, according to his analysis. The rate has seen some increases, notably during the coronavirus pandemic, but it remains well below its peak in the early 1990s.

There are two ways to determine which time period to use when analyzing FBI data. It could cover either the 50 years from 1972 to 2022 (the most recent 50 years available in the FBI's annual data) or the 48 years from 1974 to 2022 (using 1974 because it was 50 years from when Biden made this claim).

We looked at the FBI data Asher analyzed for both periods, and using either, Biden is correct that the 2022 data is “close” to a 50-year low.

In 1972, there were 401 violent crimes per 100,000 residents; in 1974, there were 461 violent crimes per 100,000 residents.

Both of these data points are higher than the 2022 figure of just under 370 violent crimes per 100,000 residents.

2022 would have been the lowest year for violent crime in the last 50 years, with the exception of two marginal declines below the 2022 level, in 2014 and 2019. (In both years, the crime rate violent crimes was 364 per 100,000).

Other types of crime statistics, including the National Crime Victimization Survey, show current levels of violent crime well below their peaks in the early 1990s.

If the preliminary decline seen in the private sector estimate for 2023 holds with the FBI data for the full year, Asher said, then the FBI figure for 2023 would fall to the lowest level in the last 50 years.

“A drop in violent crime, no matter how small, would lead the 2023 rate to be lower than both 2014 and 2019,” Asher said.

But Biden's statement calls it “close” to the lowest level in 50 years, which is accurate.

“Biden’s statement on violent crime is absolutely true,” said James Alan Fox, a criminologist at Northeastern University. “Despite an increase in murders in 2020, amid the emergence of COVID, even homicides decreased. »

Biden said: “Violent crime is near a 50-year low. »

The FBI's violent crime rate for 2022, the latest year officially available, was 370 per 100,000 residents. Since 1972, only two years have had a lower violent crime rate: 2014 and 2019.

Preliminary estimates for 2023 show the violent crime rate continues to decline. And if this plays out again in the final FBI data, 2023 will become the lowest year for violent crime rates in 50 years.

We rate the statement as true.

This fact check was originally published by PolitiFact, part of the Poynter Institute. See the sources for this fact check here.