ISW: Ukraine's ability to strike Russian military targets with US weapons remains severely limited

Lina Portman3 weeks ago

0 2 minutes read

The US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) says the Biden administration's limited policy change allows Ukraine to use US-supplied weapons to strike some Russian military targets in a confined area of Russian territory. However, this adjustment only reduced Russia's land sanctuary (areas within range of Ukrainian ATACMS) by a maximum of 16%. As a result, US policy still preserves at least 84% of Russia's land sanctuary.

ISW asserts that this policy of limiting the use of U.S.-supplied weapons has effectively created a substantial sanctuary for Russia. This protected zone includes territory within the range of U.S.-supplied weapons, where Ukrainian forces cannot target Russian military infrastructure, including combat forces, command and control centers, logistics and services. rear support essential to Russian operations in Ukraine.

Despite this policy change, the vast majority of Russia's rear and deep operational zones remain protected by U.S. policy, which prohibits Ukraine from using ATACMS anywhere in Russia, ISW notes. The late May 2024 policy change regarding the use of U.S.-supplied weapons against military targets in Russia removed at most 16% of Russia's land sanctuary, assuming Ukrainian forces could strike all targets. legitimate Russian military targets within range of Ukrainian HIMARS using GMLRS in Russian territory. Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk Oblasts.

However, it remains unclear whether Ukrainian forces are authorized to strike all targets in these areas, ISW notes. Senior U.S. officials have described Ukraine's ability to strike Russia with GMLRS as limited to counter-battery fire and geographically limited to the Kharkiv region. They also indicated that Ukrainian forces could strike Russian military installations. »deployed right across the [Ukrainian] border“, suggesting restrictions against targeting Russian military installations deeper in the rear or other areas of Kursk and Bryansk oblasts still within GMLRS range. Statements by U.S. officials also suggest that Ukrainian forces may be prevented from targeting Russian military installations that are not actively involved in ground attacks against Ukraine.

ISW: “The Biden administration's limited policy reversal, allowing Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied weapons to strike Russian military targets on Russian territory, has removed at most only 16 percent of Ukraine's land sanctuary. Russia – a small area along the Russian-Ukrainian international border.

ISW: “The change in U.S. policy, while a step in the right direction, is itself inadequate and incapable of disrupting Russian operations on a large scale. The ISW believes that the West retains the ability to significantly disrupt large-scale Russian operations by allowing Ukraine to use Western-supplied weapons to strike Russia's operational rear and deep rear areas of Russian territory.