Identify 4 sleepers for 2024 using PFF stable metrics

• Second-year RB Kendre Miller showed promise: Despite numerous injuries throughout his rookie season, advanced statistics identify Miller as a potential candidate for 2024.

• Jonnu Smith makes a new start with the Miami Dolphins: Despite ranking fourth in team targets, Smith achieved career highs in receptions and receiving yards in 2023, ranking as one of the most efficient tight ends in the league in two key indicators.

• Check PFF Fantasy Football Rankings: PFF's fantasy football rankings include our expert rankings, projections and our strength of schedule measure.

Estimated reading time: 8 minutes

Ahead of the 2024 fantasy football season, analysts will comb through an endless pile of statistics to predict the performance of hundreds of players across the league. However, some of these statistics are more predictive of future performance than others. Here are four fantasy football sleepers identified using PFF's stable metrics who could compete for a big 2024 season.

RB Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans

THE Tennessee Titans free agent signing running back Tony Pollard to a big contract amid the workaholic's departure Derrick Henri in free agency this offseason. Since then, the public has largely cooled on the potential for a breakthrough for the second-year running back. Tyjae Spears. However, a look at the numbers (and some speculation about a possible two-back system) could give fantasy managers hope for a 2024 breakthrough.

Working in a change-of-pace role behind Henry last season, Spears averaged an impressive 26 percent missed forced tackle rate on rushing attempts, which ranked fourth among running backs. He ranked in the 81st percentile or higher in his yards after contact per attempt, missed forced tackle rate on receptions and yards per route run.

Unfortunately, Spears doesn't foresee a permanent role with Pollard in the mix, but having ranked fourth among running backs (min. 50% of snaps) with 1.01 fantasy points per touch last season, he won't have maybe don't need more than 250 touches to provide some value to fantasy managers.

RB Kendre Miller, New Orleans Saints

THE New Orleans Saints written Kendre Miller with the 72nd pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Unfortunately, a multitude of injuries limited his effectiveness and availability throughout the year, averaging just 3.8 yards per carry. However, advanced metrics tell a different story.

During his limited playing time as a rookie, Miller managed to impress, ranking in the 78th percentile or missing in forced tackles per attempt (0.24), yards after contact per attempt (3.12), receiving grade (72.7) and yards per route run among running backs (2.17). Heading into the 2024 season now in good health, with a Alvin Kamara whose floor efficiency has declined significantly over the past three seasons, should provide Miller with an opportunity that will pleasantly surprise fantasy managers willing to take a chance.

WR Dontayvion highlights, Green Bay Packers

THE Green Bay PackersThe receiving corps has been a hot topic lately, with Fantasy Football managers doing their best to identify the WR1 of this up-and-coming offense. At this point you could argue for almost any of them, but today it's Dontayvion Wicks' turn. The former 2023 fifth-round pick totaled 581 receiving yards and four touchdowns on 39 receptions in 2023, which won't excite many fantasy football managers, but his steady metrics offer exciting prospects heading into the second year.

In addition to ranking in the 70th percentile or higher among wide receivers in yards after the catch per reception, yards per route run, open target rate and PFF receiving grade, Wicks managed to average 2.06 points fantasy per target (18th among WRs).

Wicks (and the rest of these Packers receivers) will have plenty of target competition between them, but his advanced metrics indicate tremendous potential heading into his second NFL season.

Complete YouTube segment on Dontayvion Wicks with @JamesDKoh is here: https://t.co/1Wjs8Nn4IE

And be sure to check out Wicks' rookie year #ReceptionPerception profile https://t.co/46UUDgjfzN pic.twitter.com/KqrPAjyzPO

– Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) June 4, 2024

TE Jonnu Smith, Miami Dolphins

It's not often you'll hear me tout a 28-year-old tight end as a potential breakthrough, but the former third-round pick has a great opportunity to make his mark on the ultra-efficient group. Miami Dolphins' passing game. After two years with the New England Patriots Between the 2021 and 2022 seasons, Smith quietly managed the breakout campaign fans expected, hauling in career highs with 50 catches and 582 receiving yards while ranking fourth on the team in total targets. Still, Smith was effective with the opportunities he saw, averaging 1.77 fantasy points per target, which ranked him sixth among tight ends this season.

In 2023, Smith passed for 1.55 yards per route run (tied for 10th among TEs with 50+ targets) and 7.3 yards after the catch per reception – tied with George Kittle for the second-highest YAC per reception average among tight ends. Consider the possibility of catching passes from Tua Tagovailoa, one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league averaging 8.2 yards per attempt over the past two seasons, a huge opportunity. Even though he emerges as the third receiving option for the Dolphins, Smith could have a sneaky season.