How Turkey's support for Ukraine is a double-edged sword

Turkey has managed to walk a delicate diplomatic line in maintaining ties with Russia and Ukraine since Moscow invaded its pro-Western neighbor in February 2022.

At the same time, Ankara improved relations with the United States and even coordinated with them the production of weapons to help Ukraine.

The latest U.S. munitions plant in Texas, commissioned this month, uses state-of-the-art equipment from Turkish company Repkon.

The new factory is critical to meeting current shortages in the Ukrainian military and ultimately aims to meet a third of the United States' needs.

Turkish analyst Sinan Ciddi of the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies says the Ukrainians are running out of ammunition because they are using Allied-supplied howitzers, which require a certain type of ammunition.

“It is the essential weapon of choice which until recently prevented the advance and reconquest of Ukrainian cities by Russian troops,” he explains to RFI.

“The fact that Turkey is going down this path is remarkable,” Ciddi continues, “simply because Turkey has a vast capacity not only in supply and manufacturing, but also because it constitutes a kind of line of supply. “vital supply for the United States, which is also beginning to run out of resources on the quantity of shells it has supplied to the Ukrainian partner.”

Source of tensions

US Ambassador to Turkey Jeff Flake welcomed the collaboration as a sign of the growing importance of deepening bilateral relations.

But Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's close relations with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin are a source of tension between Ankara and Washington.

Since the start of the Russian invasion, Ankara has supported kyiv but remained neutral, refusing to apply Western sanctions against Moscow.

Meanwhile, another Turkish company, Baykar, is building a military drone factory in Ukraine.

“It’s a bit risky to set up a factory in Ukraine in war conditions,” warns military analyst Tayfun Ozberk.

“It is obviously very important for Turkey to establish a factory in Ukraine. It conveys a political message, but it will not change Turkey's position in this war,” Özberk added.

For Sine Ozkarasahin, an independent Turkish defense analyst, “Turkey is definitely walking on thin ice.”

Doubling down on support for Ukraine will surely test Ankara's policy of balancing its relations with Moscow and its Western allies, she said.

Agree to disagree

Ozkarasahin maintains that this balancing act with Russia is an integral part of Turkey's current diplomatic policy, which she describes as “compartmentalization,” or “agreeing to disagree.”

This means that Turkey and Russia may have different agendas on the ongoing war in Ukraine or the situation in Syria, while collaborating on different areas, such as energy trade.

“Ankara separates these things from each other, which is one of the main pillars of its policy towards Russia and, ultimately, Turkey is a critical lifeline for Russia,” she says.

As Turkey's defense industry increases its support for Ukraine and its Western allies' efforts to supply Ukraine's military, Ankara remains a key trading partner with Russia.

Sinan Ciddi points out that the US Treasury has sanctioned Turkish companies that supply the Russian army with dual-use goods, including electronic chips, parts that go directly into the manufacture of high-end Russian weapons used against the Ukrainians.

“Turkey has it both ways,” he says, warning that Washington and Ukraine could pay a considerable price for Ankara’s support.

“This really puts the United States in a bind, because it has to remain increasingly or systematically silent about Turkey's double-dipping, and so it's a double-edged sword,” Ciddi says.