How North Korea sends weapons to Russia for its war in Ukraine

Two days before the meeting, the US State Department estimated that North Korea had supplied more than 11,000 containers of munitions to Russia since September.

A new analysis of internal Russian trade data sheds light on how suspected North Korean munitions shipments were distributed through Russia.

The data, obtained by the global security nonprofit C4ADS and provided to the Washington Post, covers shipments from August to January and shows that more than 74,000 tons of explosives were distributed from two ports in the Russian Far East to 16 locations mainly along the west of the country. borders close to Ukraine. This weight is equivalent to approximately 1.6 million artillery shells of the type used by Russia during the war.

According to C4ADS, the sites where the goods arrived indicated they were munitions, despite documentation referring to explosives.

The data does not include the origin of the shipments, but an analysis by The Post and C4ADS found evidence of Russian ship movements between North Korea and Russia during the same period.

“This is the closest thing to proving a link between Russia and North Korea in munitions transfers, and it proves that the Russians and North Koreans were lying” in denying the transfers, said Go Myong-hyun, senior researcher at the Seoul Institute. for National Security Strategy, which is affiliated with South Korea's intelligence agency.

“It really gives more credibility to the fact that North Korea is helping Russia fight its war in Ukraine,” Go said. “Unless we have pictures, or the North Koreans say, 'Look, we transferred some shells to Russia', or something like that, that's the best we can get.”

Analysis of satellite imagery and maritime traffic data by The Post and C4ADS shows that Russian-flagged ships linked to the country's military were docked in the North Korean port of Rajin, then later in Russian ports from Vostochny and Dunai. Most of the explosives left for sites in Russia within a week of their arrival, according to the data.

These ships – the Lady R, the Angara, the Maria and the MAIA-1 – belong to Russian companies with close ties to the country's military. Although it is impossible to verify exactly what these ships were carrying, the United States and South Korea have already publicly named the four ships as being involved in transporting North Korean weapons to Russia, based on satellite images and press articles.

The influx of North Korean munitions helped shift the war in Russia's favor, said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. This has been one of the “critical factors affecting the conduct of operations and determining who has the advantage in a war characterized by attrition,” Kofman said.

The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a British think tank that also uses satellite imagery to monitor movements between North Korea and Russia, has seen the same trends. The group found 27 shipments between the North Korean port of Rajin and the two Russian ports around the same time, estimating that thousands of containers were moved, although their contents remain unknown.

The shipments were sent to 16 locations across Russia, including 12 near known munitions storage facilities, according to trade data obtained by C4ADS from a person with access to Russian transportation industry documentation and logistics, which The Post is not identifying due to security risks. This indicated to experts that these explosives were likely munitions.

Facilities near sites listed in the data are affiliated with artillery and rocket storage, and some may store artillery munitions and other armored vehicles, said Dara Massicot, a senior researcher for the Russia and Eurasia program. of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, which reviewed the findings at the request of The Post.

There are also facilities that fall under the Russian Defense Ministry department that oversees the procurement of weapons for the Russian military, known as GRAU, and these facilities typically store artillery shells, rockets, missiles and many other types of munitions, Massicot said.

“While we cannot be sure of what exactly they are delivering, the explosives labels…and delivery to storage bases near Ukraine and to sensitive GRAU munitions storage facilities elsewhere in Russia suggest that these “The shipments are likely delivering a variety of munitions types to Russia, from artillery fire to rockets,” Massicot said.

Satellite images show visible changes at several of these sites. From September to December, containers appeared near ammunition depots. New protective berms indicating expanded storage areas were also observed at these sites.

“A massive buildup of berms, commonly used to isolate explosives, indicates that these are likely munitions,” said Margaux Garcia, a Russia analyst at C4ADS. “Moreover, the fact that these shipments are heading west toward the Russian-Ukrainian border suggests that Russia intends to use these munitions in the war effort. »

More than five shipments were also sent to the JSC Voskresenskiy Agregatniy Zavod (VAZ) missile assembly plant, located about 40 miles from Moscow and which was sanctioned by the United States.

Russia, whose munitions stocks are running low in its war against Ukraine, is relying on its few remaining allies for resupply, while isolated North Korea is still looking for ways to make money.

Shunned by the West because of its invasion of Ukraine, Putin is seeking partners who share his anti-Western stance, notably China, Iran and North Korea. This week, Kim touted the “strong alliance” with Moscow and openly supported Putin's war against Ukraine – the strongest support for the Russian invasion from a foreign leader.

Kim also faces increasing economic sanctions and isolation over his nuclear ambitions. It needs food, fuel, money and military technology – everything Russia can provide.

While it is unclear what exactly North Korea has received in return so far, there are indications that Russian technology was used in North Korea's recent efforts to launch a spy satellite in space, Yoo Sang-bum, a member of South Korea's parliamentary intelligence committee, told reporters last year: citing the national intelligence agency.

Read more: C4ADS found no evidence that Russian-flagged ships unloaded goods at Vostochny in December, and trade data recorded no explosives leaving the port that month, Andrew Boling said, who leads research on state-sponsored threats. in the maritime space at C4ADS.

The Post and C4ADS analysis excludes ships unable to carry containers full of munitions and ships from Japan, South Korea or Taiwan, all of which have sharply criticized Russia's war against China. Ukraine. The analysis excluded ships from China, as there are no accusations of Chinese munitions being used in Russia.

Michelle Ye Hee Lee reported from Seoul.