How AP analyzed Gaza Health Ministry death toll data

Lina Portman4 weeks ago

0 2 minutes read

The Associated Press analyzed the death toll in the war between Israel and Hamas using data provided by the Gaza Strip's health ministry. The analysis found that the proportion of women and children killed has declined over time.

The ministry, part of the Hamas-led government in Gaza, does not distinguish between civilian and combatant deaths, so the proportion of women and children killed is considered the best available indicator of the number deaths among civilians.

The ministry has periodically released the underlying data on which its daily death toll updates are based. The datasets published on social media in late October, early January, late March and late April name people who the ministry says died because of the war.

The AP analysis was based on people identified by the Health Ministry with their full name, gender, date of birth and Israeli-issued identification number. In April, nearly 23,000 deaths met these criteria.

The death toll, announced daily by the ministry and often reported by foreign media, is significantly higher and is not limited to fully identified people.

The ministry's daily death toll – which stood at 34,622 at the end of April and 36,379 at the end of May – is not accompanied by the underlying data. Its tally includes bodies that were not claimed by families, or that were decomposed beyond recognition, or whose records were lost during Israeli raids on hospitals – as well as individuals whose records are incomplete.

The proportion of women and children who died during the war has declined over time, even as the total number of deaths has increased, according to Health Ministry data: by 64% in October (4,344 out of 6,745 people fully identified), to 62% at the start of the war. January (8,711 out of 14,117), to 57% at the end of March (11,296 out of 19,859) to 54% as of April 30 (12,479 out of 22,961.)

Women and children accounted for 38% of newly identified deaths in April (1,183 out of 3,102), according to Health Ministry data.

Since the March snapshot, Health Ministry data included corpses that were not fully identified, mainly because they lacked Israeli-issued identification numbers: there were 402 in March and 1,699 in April in this category.

The data provided to AP was flawed in other respects. Among these perfectly identified people, some were identified twice by the ministry. There were 531 individuals double-counted in March and 11 individuals double-counted in April.

The AP excluded from its analysis all bodies that were not fully identified, as well as duplicates; their elimination had no material impact (less than 1%) on the proportion of women and children killed.

When the war ends, the Health Ministry will likely be able to identify more bodies and get a clearer picture of the war's overall toll and its impact on different groups of people.