Hezbollah has the weapons to carry out its threat against Cyprus

• The leader of the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon has threatened the Republic of Cyprus.
• Hezbollah has a vast arsenal of missiles and drones to carry out its threat.
• Hezbollah could use Cyprus as a 'surrogate' to threaten Greece, regional expert says

The leader of Lebanon's powerful Iran-backed Hezbollah militia threatened the Republic of Cyprus for the first time this month, highlighting the risks of the Middle East crisis spreading beyond the region. The threat to Cyprus is also an indirect threat to NATO member Greece, which has close ties to Israel.

“The Cypriot government must be warned that the opening of Cypriot airports and bases to the Israeli enemy to target Lebanon means that the Cypriot government has become party to the war and that the resistance (Hezbollah) will deal with this in the part of the war,” said Hassan Nasrallah. , the secretary general of Hezbollah, said in a speech on June 19.

Hezbollah has a vast arsenal of drones, anti-ship, ballistic and cruise missiles that allows it to carry out Nasrallah's threat against the eastern Mediterranean island.

“Hezbollah is trying to use every possible means to sow fear in Israel and its partners, in this case the Republic of Cyprus,” George Tzogopoulos, a senior researcher at the International European Training Center, an institute, told Business French political research. Insider.

“I would consider Hezbollah’s tactics as psychological warfare,” Tzogopoulos said. “Even though the Republic of Cyprus and Israel have had strategic cooperation for years, the current moment is crucial. This may be why threats were made public a few days ago.”

Cyprus is a divided island. The southern republic threatened by Nasrallah is a member of the European Union. Apart from Turkey, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, located in the north, is not internationally recognized. These camps are divided by a buffer zone monitored by the UN. The UK also has exclusive control over two military bases in the south of the island, Akrotiri and Dhekelia, officially known as sovereignty zones.

The EU, as expected, denounced Nasrallah's threats, as did Greece, the Republic's main ally. Turkey, conversely, warned Cyprus to “stay away from conflict” in the region.

Cypriot armed forces have held training exercises with their Israeli counterparts on the island. Cyprus has maintained an official policy of neutrality in the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, a policy it has reiterated since Nasrallah’s threat. The island serves as a hub for the maritime humanitarian corridor that the United States and the EU have attempted to establish to deliver aid to Gaza. According to officials, US-Cyprus relations have recently “reached their highest level to date,” raising hopes that the US will completely lift its arms embargo on the island. The warming of relations will undoubtedly help Cyprus resist the Hezbollah threat.

“Public threats are taken seriously and can elicit a political response,” Mr. Tzogopoulos said. “The Republic of Cyprus is in a position to denounce Hezbollah’s tactics at the EU level and simultaneously seek support from the United States.”

“Hezbollah’s public threats could prove to be a double-edged sword for it,” Tzogopoulos added. “In terms of security, I do not expect a country like the Republic of Cyprus, so close to the United States and Israel, to start preparing for a possible attack following public threats. »

However, Hezbollah could harm Cyprus if it carries out its threat. The group flew three unarmed drones over Israel's Karish gas drilling platform in 2022, demonstrating its ability to threaten targets in the Israeli maritime zone. Tzogopoulos suspects that Hezbollah could “perhaps employ similar tactics” inside Cyprus' exclusive economic zone, which is also well within range of the group's drones and missiles.

“The Israeli ability to shoot down Hezbollah drones in 2022 could be a model for the Republic of Cyprus,” Tzogopoulos said. “In fact, this is the substance of strategic cooperation between Israel and the Republic of Cyprus.”

Israel, the analyst noted, is also “ready to share some of its technological and military know-how” with the island republic. Before the war in Gaza which began following the Hamas terrorist attacks of October 7, reports emerged that Cyprus was negotiating the acquisition of Israeli Merkava Mark III main battle tanks and even the famous Israeli air defense system Iron Dome.

The Cypriot National Guard's air defenses are limited to short- and medium-range systems such as the Russian Tor and Buk missiles. These systems are no match for the powerful surface-to-surface missiles in Hezbollah's arsenal, which includes the Iranian-designed Fateh series of short-range ballistic missiles, most of which have sufficient range to reach the Cypriot capital Nicosia, located approximately 290 kilometers away.

Hezbollah's vast arsenal includes up to 150,000 rockets and missiles and about 2,000 drones of various types, many of which are based on Iranian designs. These include a Syrian variant of Iran's Fateh-110 missile, the M-600. This GPS-guided missile is nearly 30 feet long.

Hezbollah drones have recently posed significant challenges to Israel's sophisticated, multi-layered air defenses, including Iron Dome. While many of these drones are relatively low-tech, such as the inexpensive and locally assembled Mersad and Ayoub models, others are more advanced models based on Iranian designs like the Ababil, Mohajer and Shahed series. In addition to launching one-way explosive drone barrages, Hezbollah attacked a military post in northern Israel in May using a drone that fired two missiles into Israeli airspace.

Hezbollah has also accumulated an arsenal of increasingly sophisticated anti-ship missiles in recent years, including the Russian-made Yakhont, which has a range of 186 miles.

Such capabilities would undoubtedly pose a significant threat to Cyprus in the event of war.

Experts have previously noted that such missiles also allow Hezbollah to target the British Akrotiri airbase on the island, which has supported U.S.-led airstrikes against Hezbollah’s ally, the Houthis in Yemen. “If Hezbollah targets British bases in Cyprus, it would represent a high risk,” Tzogopoulos said. “The Anglo-American response to such a scenario would be strong. Nothing can be ruled out in times of general instability, but Hezbollah will pay a heavy price if it targets British bases in Cyprus.”

Nicholas Heras, director of strategy and innovation at the New Lines Institute, believes that Nasrallah's threat also targets other countries, notably Greece. Hezbollah seeks to send the message that “the entire Eastern Mediterranean is within range of its attacks” if the group “feels existentially threatened” by a full-scale war with Israel, he said.

“Cyprus, while it may serve as a route for the Israeli air force to target Hezbollah in Lebanon, or Hezbollah assets in Syria, is far from being as important a security partner for Israel as Greece has become in recent years,” Heras told BI.

The New Lines analyst noted that the Israeli Defense Forces have used Greece as a “key site” to train for another potential war in Lebanon. Greece allows the Israeli Air Force to train in areas of the country with “topographical similarities” to Lebanon.

“Greece, a NATO country, is not a likely target for Hezbollah, but Cyprus, a country with close cultural and other ties to Greece, serves as a surrogate for Greece for intimidation purposes potential,” Heras said.

“Hezbollah's long-range missiles supplied by Iran could hit Greece. »