close
close
Local

Here's What Could Happen If Trump Goes To Prison — As Hush Money Jurors Deliberate

Top line

Former President Donald Trump could soon become the first US president to be convicted of a crime, and the judge overseeing his criminal case in New York could potentially sentence him to prison – an unprecedented and unlikely situation that would result in d significant logistical complications and political impact. “ripple effect,” experts say.

Highlights

The 12-person jury in Trump's Manhattan silence case began deliberations Wednesday to determine whether to acquit or convict Trump of 34 counts of falsifying business records, in what prosecutors say is a ploy to improve his chances of winning the 2016 elections by hiding his silence. Cash payments to an adult film star who claims to have had an affair with Trump.

If the jury convicts Trump, Judge Juan Merchan of Manhattan Criminal Court will hand down his sentence — which ranges from a fine of up to $5,000 to four years in prison on each of the 34 counts — likely within a few years. weeks, although Trump will almost certainly appeal a conviction, which could drag out the case for months.

Given Trump's status as a first-time offender and the nature of the charges, legal experts generally believe a prison sentence is unlikely, although Trump's repeated violations of a gag order barring him from denigrating the various parties involved in the case – and the consequences of his alleged actions – could lead Merchan to impose a harsher punishment.

If the jury agrees with prosecutors that Trump's conduct may have altered the results of the 2016 election, “it is fair to say that he should be treated differently in terms of punishment” than in a ” case of banal financial fraud.” which would typically result in no jail time for a first-time offender, former Manhattan district attorney and criminal defense attorney Jeremy Saland told Forbes.

In New York, Class E sentences for offenders who have not been convicted of a crime in the last 10 years are imposed concurrently in thirds, such as one to three years, meaning Trump would be eligible up for parole after a year, Saland said.

If Trump were sentenced to less than a year, he would serve his sentence in a municipal prison, such as Rikers Island, and would likely be eligible for parole after serving two-thirds of his sentence, Saland said, and if he is sentenced to In more than a year, the state Department of Corrections and Community Supervision will determine which of its 44 facilities he will be sent to.

Tangent

The Secret Service was preparing for the unlikely possibility that Trump could be incarcerated before the trial began, The New York Times previously reported, citing sources familiar with the preparations. Secret Service agents would be stationed at the facility 24 hours a day to protect Trump, who would likely be held in an area closed to other detainees.

To monitor

Trump could also be sentenced to community service or probation, which could cause significant logistical complications given his travel schedule and the likely requirement that he routinely report to a prison office. probation or receive random visits from a probation officer, Saland said.

Contra

Saland said that while he believes Trump deserves prison time if the jury finds he “potentially altered the election and the presidency,” the political consequences would be too severe to merit prison time. “Just because you can doesn’t mean you should,” Saland said. “Putting him in prison will have consequences and a ripple effect that none of us can imagine or understand. »

Key context

The jury began deliberating Wednesday after an 11-hour hearing Tuesday in which prosecutors and Trump's lawyers presented their closing arguments, marking the culmination of the six-week trial. Prosecutors indicted Trump in March 2023 for fraudulently labeling business records as legal fees, alleging that the payments were actually made to reimburse his former lawyer, Michael Cohen, for the $130,000 Cohen said he paid to adult film star Stormy Daniels in exchange for her silence about the 2006 affair she said she had with Trump. Falsifying business records is a misdemeanor in New York, but prosecutors have charged Trump with crimes saying he committed the crimes with the intent to commit or cover up another crime, such as illegally conspiring to influence the state's election. 2016. Trump pleaded not guilty to the charges, denied allegations of affair with Daniels, and repeatedly accused prosecutors and Merchan, without evidence, of working on behalf of President Joe Biden to harm Trump's chances of winning in November .

Further reading

The jury is currently deliberating in Trump's Hush Money trial – and Trump can't leave until there is a verdict (Forbes)

Trump trial prosecutor ends closing argument after nearly 5 hours – jury instructions set for Wednesday (Forbes)

Here's what happens if Trump is found guilty – as the jury begins deliberating (Forbes)

Related Articles

Back to top button