Hawaii braces for extreme wildfire potential one year after Lahaina fire

HONOLULU – The nation's 50th state could face another major wildfire season, just one year after suffering the worst natural disaster in its history.

The National Interagency Coordination Center warns of significant fire potential lingering throughout the Hawaiian Islands into the fall, particularly on the leeward sides of the mountains, where wildfires could spread quickly.

The islands are vulnerable to flash droughts due to rapid evapotranspiration, where moisture escapes from the soil and plants.

According to the US Drought Monitor, only 8% of the islands are officially in drought, which is higher than last summer.

In just three months of 2023, drought status has gone from 0% to over 80% of communities experiencing some type of drought.

Rapid drying of vegetation and soil is believed to be one of many factors leading to wildfires in 2023.

The series of wind-driven fires ravaged several islands, killing at least 101 people in and around Lahaina and destroying more than 2,000 structures.

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The NICC's potential fire outlook identified the Hawaiian Islands, as well as the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, as regions facing increased wildfire risks throughout the summer and may -be beyond.

For the 137 islands that make up the archipelago, forecasters said a combination of the annual dry season and a change in the state of El Niño's Southern Oscillation would likely lead to an increase in fire risk .

“Precipitation tends to be above average during most of the El Niño year. Dry conditions tend to begin toward the end of the El Niño year and are at their worst during the first half of the year after El Niño In some cases, dry conditions can persist year-round after El Niño,” the islands' National Weather Service previously said of the phenomenon.

A wet spring increased the amount of fuel available for fires, with wildfire activity expected to peak in August and September.

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Unknowns in the heart of fire season

Although fire activity is expected to be above normal, some elements of the perfect storm scenario that played out in 2023 are unlikely to recur.

Last year's wind-driven wildfires were driven by a significant pressure gradient, with a ridge of high pressure to the north of the islands and a major hurricane named Dora to the south.

These weather features were of significant strength and were part of a synoptic pattern that does not occur regularly.

In 2024, the number of hurricanes bypassing the islands is expected to decrease, as NOAA has predicted below-average cyclone activity in the central Pacific due to approaching La Niña.

Another unknown is how local emergency management will respond to the next disaster.

Agencies on the islands have not faced a disaster as complex as the August 2023 wildfires, so adjustments to protocols have not been tested and, in some cases, implemented.

Maui's emergency management agency was widely criticized in the days following the deadly Lahaina fire for its response and even saw its administrator resign.

A recently released 84-page report by the fire department highlights the challenges and offers dozens of recommendations, but the report lacks any sort of timeline for when changes might come.

Additionally, Hawaiian Electric announces plans to preemptively shut off power in high fire risk areas to prevent any type of ignition, unlike what happened in 2023.

More than 48,000 customers could have their power cut off under the company's wildfire safety strategy in the event of expected threats.

Power companies in the western United States have long adopted similar policies, but they are not foolproof at preventing fires.