Hamas rocket barrage on center to prevent IDF from seizing weapons, expert tells TML

After a four-month hiatus, Hamas fired eight rockets at towns north of Tel Aviv from Rafah, aiming to use long-range weapons before the IDF could seize them.

In a significant escalation, Hamas fired eight rockets from Rafah into central Israel on Sunday afternoon, the first such attack in more than four months. The Israeli military confirmed that Iron Dome intercepted three rockets, while five landed in open areas. Minor injuries and material damage were noted, but no one was seriously injured.

For many, the attack underscores the continuing threat from Hamas despite the prolonged military campaign that followed on October 7. However, an IDF spokesperson informed The Media Line that the Israeli military was not surprised by the attack and that it had “identified several rocket launching infrastructures.” positioned next to civilian areas in Rafah but cannot comment on details due to security of ongoing operations. The Israeli military is aware of remaining Hamas forces in Rafah.

Professor Kobi Michael, a senior researcher at the Israel Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and the Misgav Institute, shared his analysis with The Media Line.

It is not at all surprising that Hamas is still capable of launching such an attack against central Israel. The Israeli army has only just entered Rafah, and it has not yet reached Hamas' center of gravity.

“It is not at all surprising that Hamas is still capable of launching such an attack against central Israel. The Israeli army has only just entered Rafah, and it has not yet reached Hamas' center of gravity. The Israeli military knows it still has long-range rocket capabilities. They keep saying they will attack Tel Aviv, and they launched these rockets as if they also attacked many other cities in Israel,” he said.

According to Michael, Hamas had enormous quantities of long-range rockets throughout the Gaza Strip. “Israel succeeded in destroying and dismantling most of Hamas's arsenal, but more importantly, we destroyed its ability to manufacture more rockets. These rockets [used in] the attack on the Tel Aviv area on Sunday afternoon is part of their remaining capacity in Rafah, and this is one of the reasons why [IDF] ground operation there, to destroy all their remaining capacity to attack Israel,” he said.

There are many tunnels in Rafah and I estimate that Hamas still has four battalions there. This is exactly why the IDF needs to go there.

“There are many tunnels in Rafah, and I estimate that Hamas still has four battalions there. This is exactly why the IDF needs to go there. In the next two or three weeks, as the IDF finishes its operations in Rafah, the remaining Hamas terrorists will attempt to launch rockets to prevent the weapons from being captured by the IDF,” he explained.

Following recent IDF operations in Rafah, the army issued a press release minutes before Hamas launched the attack on Sunday. In the document, the IDF informed the public that “during targeted operations in the Rafah area, terrorists who attempted to attack IDF troops were eliminated. During scans of the area, IDF troops located tunnel shafts and large quantities of weapons, including AK-47s, RPGs, grenades and explosives. In addition, two rocket launchers in the Rafah region targeting Kerem Shalom were hit overnight. »

Michael noted that “as Hamas is forced to launch its remaining rockets to prevent its most valuable long-range missiles from being captured by the IDF, it also ends up revealing where the launch infrastructure is located, allowing [Israeli Air Force] the IAF to cripple their ability to relaunch from these locations. In some ways, when Hamas attacks Israel in this way, it allows Israel to dismantle it more quickly. »

Hours after Hamas rockets were fired at the Tel Aviv area, the IDF issued a press release claiming that the IAF had struck the launch sites of the rockets fired at central Israel. “Earlier today (Sunday), eight projectiles were fired from the Rafah area towards central Israel. The rocket launcher, which was near two mosques in the Rafah area, was hit by the Israeli army shortly after. This is further evidence of the systematic exploitation of civilian areas by the terrorist organization Hamas for its terrorist activities, including rocket attacks against Israeli civilians,” the statement said.

At this point, Hamas looks less like the terrorist organization it once was, as it has transformed into a terrorist guerrilla.

According to Michael, “At this point, Hamas looks less like the terrorist organization it once was, because it has transformed into a terrorist guerrilla. They can harm troops in the [Gaza] Gaza Strip, but their ability to harm Israeli civilians outside the Strip has been significantly reduced. I estimate that at this point Hamas still has a few dozen long-range missiles that can reach Tel Aviv and other areas, as well as a few hundred short-range rockets that can reach between eight and ten kilometers. did he declare.

“Until a few weeks ago, the tunnels connecting Rafah and Egypt were still active, so we can assume that they were bringing in material to make short-range rockets,” Michael continued. “But these long-range missiles are much more complicated to manufacture, and the IDF destroyed the manufacturing plant they had in the Nuseirat area, closer to central Gaza. »

When they attack central Israel at this stage of the war, they want to send the message that they can still strike Israel. However, perhaps more importantly, Hamas also speaks to the local population of Gaza and asserts that it will remain a sovereign power in the Gaza Strip.

The Hamas war has a vast cognitive dimension, the professor explained. “When they attack central Israel at this stage of the war, they want to send the message that they can still hit Israel. However, perhaps more importantly, Hamas also addresses the local population of Gaza and asserts that Hamas will remain a sovereign power in the Gaza Strip. »

However, today's attacks also suggest something more, Michael said. “The spontaneity of the rocket fire against the Tel Aviv area on Sunday afternoon, apparently random and knowingly insufficient to subdue the Iron Dome, suggests that Hamas is faced with the choice between launching the rockets in this manner or letting the IDF capture their remaining long-range rockets. , expensive missiles. A lot of people talk about 'the next day', but that's what it is,” he said.

“In three or four weeks, the Israeli army will have better control over Rafah and the rest of Gaza, so as to prevent Hamas from taking over. Once this moment is reached, Israel, alongside the United States and other allies in the Middle East, will work to gradually transfer control of Gaza to the local population, in an organized manner and in dialogue with the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah, while also withdrawing troops from the strip,” concluded Michael.