GOP faces unique dilemma ahead of Trump's conviction

Among all the other questions raised by the former president Donald TrumpAfter the felony conviction, organizers of July's Republican National Convention still face a thorny problem: What if Trump is in prison when it begins?

Trump’s sentencing date, July 11, falls just days before the party’s convention begins in Milwaukee on July 15. He could be behind bars by the time the convention begins. The chances of that happening are slim to none, but that hasn’t stopped Republican Party officials from thinking about what to do.

“We're working on it right now,” Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley said. on Newsmax in early June.

“We expect Donald Trump to be in Milwaukee and able to accept this nomination. And if it doesn’t, we will do everything in our power to deal with it,” Whatley said on June 4.

Whatley did not specify exactly what those contingency plans would include.

“We plan for him to be here. I think this is really the direction we are going to move forward. Of course, you obviously have to have contingency plans in place,” Whatley said. told Spectrum News the next day.

Citing sources familiar with the convention planning, NBC News reported on June 13 backup plans were in progress at Trump's home in Florida and at the convention site in Milwaukee in case Trump is unable to physically attend.

Such contingency plans are unlikely to be necessary, given the near certainty that Trump will still be a free man at the time of the convention.

While New York County Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan could certainly send Trump to prison immediately after his sentencing hearing — and indeed, the way Trump, during his trial, upset both Merchan and the criminal justice system as a whole That might make the hypothesis more plausible: Trump will likely be free while his appeals play out, a process that could easily stretch into 2025. Judges are often reluctant to imprison convicted criminals while appeals are pending unless they pose a flight risk or are considered a danger to others. Trump would not meet those conditions.

If Merchan wanted to limit his travel, he could order Trump to “report himself” to a prison on a specific date, which would likely be after the convention.

Or it could require Trump to suspend what would essentially be house arrest at one of his residences in New York, New Jersey or Florida. On a more limited basis, Trump's travel could be curtailed, with Trump having to give notice or seek permission to travel outside a designated area.

A request for comment from the Trump campaign was not immediately returned.

Bob Shrum, a longtime Democratic consultant, said it was unlikely Trump would begin serving his sentence immediately. ” I think [Merchan] “I would say ‘report in a week, report in 10 days,’ if there was a prison sentence,” he said.

Larry Sabatodirector of the University of Virginia Center for Politics and editor of the political newsletter Sabato's Crystal Ball, said he thought it was unlikely that Trump would be thrown in prison, but that it was wise to prepare for any eventuality.

“One way or another, Trump's lawyers will probably manage to get him to the convention for a live appearance. Making Trump a martyr – even more so than he already is – is not in the court’s interest,” Sabato said in an email.

But if he were in the mix, Sabato said he could attend via video link, although it was unclear how that would work.

“If Trump is incarcerated, I suspect there will be provision for him to be able to broadcast from a room decorated with flags and banners from somewhere in the prison,” he said. “Live from Riker's Island, the Republican National Convention with Prisoner #384756! »

“Would you accept your party’s nomination from a holding cell in a prison? Or maybe he’d be sentenced to house arrest, and then he’d accept it from Mar-a-Lago? But I don’t think that’s going to happen,” Shrum said.

In the past, presidential candidates have sometimes agreed to appear at the convention on their way to accepting their party's nomination. Similarly, the 2020 Democratic convention, at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, included a virtual call of all 50 states, during which each state sent a 30-second video to be shown during the event.

The question that arises is how the incarceration of Trump, who declared himself a “political prisoner” after his conviction, could translate politically.

Republicans were quick to point to the increase in small-dollar donations to his campaign as evidence that the trial and conviction had generated more support. for Trump, which cost him more than it cost him, because voters were unhappy with the mistreatment he allegedly received.

A Economist/YouGov survey conducted in early Juneshortly after his conviction, gave some support to this idea. The survey found that 39% of respondents said he had been treated more harshly than other people by the justice system. But almost as many, 34%, said he had been treated more leniently.

The study also found that 92% of respondents said the verdict did not make them reconsider who they would vote for in November, compared to 8% who said it did.

Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.) said an imprisoned Trump would be all the more certain to win.

“If President Trump cannot physically attend the convention in Milwaukee because he is pursuing this sham trial, the Democratic Party will elect Donald J. Trump as the 47th president,” he told HuffPost.

“What the Democrats haven't understood is that they actually took the scales out of Saul's eyes on the road to Damascus and people are like, 'Damn, I don't want to live in a country where it may be possible.' arrive.'”

Sabato said the belief that Trump would be kept out of his own party's convention, which would benefit him, may be misplaced, however.

“I know what we all usually say: This will infuriate and help Trump's base – but isn't this technique being exploited?” He asked.

“A stunt like this, where poor Donald is kept out of his own convention, pleases the usual suspects, but it also highlights for non-Trump voters how embarrassing a Trump presidency could prove to be and impractical. »

The situation is, however, not completely new. Eugene V. Debs, the American Socialist Party's candidate for the White House in 1920, was behind bars in a federal prison in Atlanta for speaking out against U.S. participation in World War I.

For Debs — or like him He called himself, during the 1920 campaign, “Convict No. 9653” — a motley lot, according to historians.

A film clip of Debs being informed of his nomination circulated across the country, according to The Associated Press, and he campaigned by making a weekly statement to one of the wire services.

Debs received nearly a million votes in the 1920 presidential election. Although the Socialist Party's vote share fell from a peak of 6% in the 1912 election to around 3%, he it was the second-best election result in party history and the best result by a third-party candidate until John B. Anderson in 1980.

Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.), who led the Democratic National Committee during the 2012 and 2016 conventions, said Trump's physical presence likely would not be required to accept the nomination.

And she had advice for Republicans: “Don’t nominate someone who could potentially go to jail.” »

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