Good weapon, bad timing Ukraine has been waiting for F-16s for more than a year: can these fighter planes still change the situation on the front?

In the months following the full-scale Russian invasion, kyiv began requesting modern fighter jets to counter Russia's aerial advantage. Last year, Washington allowed other countries to send F-16s to Ukraine, although it refused to supply the American-made planes itself. Ukrainian pilots have been training to fly these planes, but Ukraine has not yet received its first F-16. Independent media outlet iStories investigated the reasons for the delays, when the F-16s could reach Ukrainian skies, and whether they can still make a difference on the battlefield. Meduza shares an English summary of the media outlet's findings.

Recover the planes

In May 2023, after several months of negotiations, Ukraine's European allies committed to providing it with American-made F-16 fighter jets. More than a year has passed since then and the Ukrainian army has still not received the planes.

When the “fighter coalition” was formed last year, Washington's permission for other countries to send F-16s to Ukraine was key. And although U.S. officials declined to transfer the plane directly, citing the risk of escalation with Russia, they nevertheless agreed to help train the Ukrainian pilots.

Ukraine was promised a significant number of F-16s: 24 from the Netherlands, 19 from Denmark and 22 from Norway (of which 12 are combat ready, while the rest need repairs or will be used as parts spare). On May 28, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Belgium would provide Ukraine with 30 additional F-16s. In total, this represents around a hundred planes. Zelensky said Ukraine needs 120 to 130 fighter jets to achieve air parity with Russia. (The country currently has 25 percent of that number, he says.) However, promised delivery times for the F-16s stretch over several years.

Initially, coalition members intended to quickly send a few planes to Ukraine, but these deliveries were constantly delayed. Denmark planned to send six F-16s in January, but this was later postponed until March or April. A month ago, Reuters, citing a Ukrainian military source, reported that the Ukrainian armed forces were now expecting the planes by June or July.

Delivery schedules for other countries are even less certain. Norway has not specified a timetable, Belgium is aiming for the end of the year and the Netherlands plans to send its planes after Denmark. On June 12, Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren said her country would begin delivering F-16s this summer. However, Ukraine's readiness depends primarily on the ability of its Western allies to train enough pilots in time.

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Get the drivers

Although there is no detailed information on the exact number of Ukrainian pilots trained on the F-16s, official reports and media publications paint a general picture. The Ukrainian Air Force selects experienced pilots who then undergo several stages of preliminary training, including specialized English courses, before flying the F-16s.

In October last year, a group of Ukrainian pilots began training at a US base in Arizona. On May 23, the US Army announced that the first of them had completed their courses. (The United States plans to train 12 pilots by the end of September this year.) According to Politico, Ukraine asked the United States to train more pilots, but there was no room: Training slots had long been allocated to military personnel from other countries who would fly F-16s, and the United States could not break its commitments. In August 2023, eight more Ukrainian pilots began training at a base in Denmark and began flying in January. That means at least 12 Ukrainian pilots are expected to complete their training in the United States or Denmark by July, and 20 by the end of the year.

Sometimes different training stages take place in different countries. In March, 10 pilots completed language training and theory classes in the UK before traveling to France for advanced pilot training. According to French media, France is not the only place where the second stage is taking place. There are also plans to train Ukrainian pilots at a new base in Romania, although they have not yet arrived there. Local media reported in March that the first pilots would begin training this summer.

By normal standards, the training is progressing at breakneck speed, but it is still not as fast as Ukraine and its Western allies would like, notes the New York Times. Israeli military expert David Sharp believes the intensive program is likely being developed on the fly; NATO countries have already retrained Eastern European pilots from Soviet-era MiG-29s to F-16s, but there was no urgency at the time. Today, instructors face both a lack of time and the pressure to ensure pilots are fully prepared, because the cost of mistakes is so high.

Additionally, there must be more pilots than planes. One pilot per fighter jet would mean the plane would remain idle from time to time. “This is unacceptable, especially since there are so few of them and they will be a priority target for Russia,” says Sharp. According to a Politico source within the US Department of Defense, Ukraine will need two pilots for each F-16. If so, the 12 pilots expected to be ready by July will be just enough for the six planes Denmark promised. The next eight pilots, whose training is expected to be completed by the end of the year, would need four additional F-16s.

The F-16s also need supporting infrastructure, such as reconnaissance and communications systems and technicians. About 50 technicians have been trained in Denmark, several dozen have been trained in the United Kingdom, and U.S. officials have announced plans to train about 200 people. Western specialists will nevertheless accompany the first planes to Ukraine, according to a source from the New York Times. They will stay until enough local specialists are trained, which could take years. An additional challenge is that the F-16s will be major targets for the Russian military. Ukraine will therefore need several air bases to move the planes, which, in turn, will require more support personnel.

A time for each weapon

When the United States agreed to the transfer of the F-16s last spring, Ukraine was preparing for a counteroffensive. Training pilots in time for the operation was unrealistic, but experts suggested the fighter jets could be used in future operations in 2024. A retired Ukrainian military pilot predicted the F-16s would play an important role in the liberation of Donbass and Crimea. Western analysts have been more cautious, generally saying that while the F-16s might be important, they would not fundamentally change the situation at the front.

When the summer counteroffensive failed, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, then commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, cited the lack of modern aircraft as one of the reasons. In 2024, Russia had taken the initiative on the front. The Russian military has also begun to intensify its attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. “Often we just don't receive the weapons systems when we need them,” a senior Ukrainian military official told Politico in April. “Every weapon has its own moment. F-16s were needed in 2023; they will not be good for 2024.”

When the Ukrainian Air Force finally receives the F-16s, the pilots will initially undertake less risky missions, such as destroying Russian cruise missiles and attack drones over the West and from central Ukraine, explains David Sharp. As they gain experience and confidence, they could begin approaching the front line, striking ground targets and engaging in long-range dogfights with Russian aircraft . However, Russian Su-35 aircraft and S-400 missile systems will still pose a significant threat to the F-16s, as Ukraine currently lacks many full-fledged Western-style air force support capabilities, such as early warning radar planes. Sweden has promised two of these planes, but it is unclear when Ukraine will receive them or start using them.

The success of the F-16s will largely depend on the weapons they are equipped with. In September last year, a representative of the Ukrainian Air Force said that Ukraine would receive the latest AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles for F-16s, with a range of up to 160-180 kilometers (approximately 100 to 110 miles). This type of munitions could help Ukraine target Russian glider bombers to protect military positions and cities from airstrikes, Forbes wrote. However, Sharp believes that the United States will not send the latest AIM-120s, because the F-16s cannot fully utilize their capabilities due to radar limitations. Instead, F-16s will likely be equipped with shorter-range AMRAAMs that can travel up to 45 to 50 kilometers (about 28 to 31 miles). Additionally, if the United States provides anti-ship missiles, these could potentially be used to target Russian Kalibr aircraft carriers in the Black Sea.

For F-16s to play a significant role on the battlefield, it is essential that they have sufficient ammunition. A shortage could be one of the reasons for delays in the delivery of fighters: there is no point in sending planes to Ukraine without ammunition. However, the F-16s will also increase the effectiveness of weapons Ukraine already has, such as HARM anti-radar missiles and JDAM guided bombs, Ukrainian Air Force General Serhiy Holubtsov said. Currently, Ukrainian pilots launch them from former Soviet aircraft. As Holubtsov explains, the F-16s enable real-time targeting and in-flight programming – factors that will significantly improve the effectiveness of these weapons.