Fate of latest ceasefire proposal depends on Netanyahu and Hamas leader in Gaza

TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — The fate of draft ceasefire agreement for Gaza depends in many respects on two men: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar.

Every leader faces important policy and personal pressures that may influence their decision-making. And neither appears eager to make concessions to end the devastating eight-month war and free hostages taken by Hamas during its Oct. 7 attack.

Hamas accepted the outline of the plan but requested “amendments.” Netanyahu has publicly disputed aspects of it, although the United States has presented it as an Israeli plan.

From major sticking points This is how to move from an initial temporary truce in the first phase of the agreement to a permanent ceasefire that includes an end to fighting and the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.

Here's a look at what could motivate the two leaders:

Netanyahu “buys time”

Throughout the war, the longtime Israeli leader was criticized for letting political considerations hinder their decision-making.

His government is supported by two ultranationalist parties opposed to the ceasefire agreements. Instead, they prefer continued military pressure to try to defeat Hamas and free the hostages. They also talk about “encouraging” Palestinians to leave and reestablishing Israeli settlements, which were dismantled when Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005 after 38 years of occupation.

Netanyahu himself has taken a hard line on the ceasefire, saying he will not end the war until Hamas's military and government capabilities are destroyed.

But with his hardline partners pledging to overthrow the government if a ceasefire is reached, Netanyahu finds himself further in a bind. His dependence on them to stay in power has recently intensified after a centrist member of his war cabinet, former military leader Benny Gantz, stop because of frustrations with Netanyahu's management of the conflict.

Netanyahu has had to balance internal pressures with demands from the Biden administration, which is promoting the latest ceasefire proposal, and hostage families who believe only a deal can free their loved ones. Tens of thousands of Israelis joined massive protests in support of the hostage families.

Netanyahu appears to be siding his far-right government partners for the moment, knowing that they hold the key to his immediate political survival, even as he claims to have the country's best interests in mind.

Their departure from government could lead to new elections, which would open it up to a vote that could end its rule and possibly open an investigation into the Oct. 7 failures.

Netanyahu is also on trial for corruption, proceedings that continued throughout the war but have faded from public consciousness. A ceasefire agreement could refocus attention on the accusations, which have harassed the Israeli leader for years and which he categorically denies.

Netanyahu's political fortunes appear to have improved over the course of the war. His public support collapsed following Hamas' surprise attack on southern Israel. But over time, it gradually became more pronounced. Although he will still face a difficult road to re-election, he is not an oversight.

“He is waging the war as he wants, which is to say very slowly. It buys time,” said Gideon Rahat, a senior fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute, a Jerusalem think tank, and chairman of the political science department at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

Rahat said Netanyahu also wanted to continue the war in hopes that former US President Donald Trump would return to power, which could give Israel more leeway in its fight against Hamas.

“I don’t see any ceasefire that’s really close to being something that he passes,” Rahat said. “But he’s not the only one in control of reality.”

Sinwar's mission is to survive

Hamas leader in Gaza also seems in no rush to sign a deal.

The militant group's exiled leaders have somewhat varied opinions on how to approach a ceasefire agreement. But Sinwar – the mastermind of the October 7 attacks – has particular weight in this affair.

As a Hamas pillar who spent decades in Israeli prisons, he has every interest in continuing the war.

On a personal level, his life may be at stake. Israel has vowed to kill him in response to the October assault, and Sinwar is believed to be hiding deep in Gaza's underground tunnels, surrounded by Israeli hostages.

If a ceasefire is required, Sinwar will take a big risk by coming forward publicly.

“I think he understands that he’s sort of a dead man walking. But the question is how long can he last? said Khaled el-Gindy, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute think tank.

But Sinwar is motivated by much more than his own personal destiny. Impregnated The radical ideology of HamasSinwar seeks the destruction of Israel and has made political gains in seeing the war damage Israel's international reputation and bolster support for the Palestinian cause.

Israel has faced growing international criticism – from its Western allies, the international justice system and protesters around the world – over its conduct during the war. It has deepened Israel's global isolation, sparked accusations that Israel is committing genocide against the Palestinians, and led the International Criminal Court prosecutor to call for the arrest of Israeli leaders.

Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank, wrote on the social platform own terms.

But Sinwar could face tough questions when the war ends – not only about his personal role in the October 7 atrocities, but also about the scale of the devastation of the war and the country's years-long rebuilding process. share of Palestinian public opinion. sink.

El-Gindy said Sinwar was not deterred by the high price Palestinian civilians in Gaza are paying in the war, seeing it as an inevitable sacrifice on the path to liberation.

From Sinwar's perspective, continuing to fight Israel's powerful army, even if only through pockets of resistance, deprives Israel of a victory, el-Gindy said.

“Their mission is to survive,” he said. “If they survive, they win.”

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Associated Press writers Julia Frankel and Jack Jeffery contributed from Jerusalem.

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