Dogecoin Price Recovery – Identifying the Real Chances of It Happening

• Dogecoin Still Volatile, Most Holders Profit Despite Long-Term Downtrend
• DOGE’s market behavior does not appear to have a clear directional movement

Dogecoin (DOGE), the model for memecoins all over the world, has not been the best performer this cycle. However, it made some modest gains a week ago amid the Ethereum ETF spot hype, rising 8% in one day. However, at press time, DOGE's chart appears to be painted red. Has the world's largest cryptocurrency become full?

First, let's take a look at DOGE holders. Data from In the block revealed that a large majority (83%) of DOGE holders are profitable at its current price. So, despite recent losses, long-term holders remain in a favorable position. Especially since 63% of Dogecoin’s supply is also held by whales.

Here it is also worth looking at BTC. The high correlation (0.86) with Bitcoin is a sign that Dogecoin's price movements are heavily influenced by broader market trends, particularly Bitcoin's movements.

Source: In the block

The near parity between inflows ($221.14 million) and outflows ($221.68 million) from the exchanges over the past week could be a sign of balanced buying-selling activity among traders. In fact, Dogecoin consolidated its position as neither the bulls nor the bears took over the charts.

Source: Coinglass

Dogecoin spikes, particularly during short liquidations, correspond to sharp price increases, suggesting that rapid uptrends forced short sellers to exit their positions at a loss.

The overall trend reveals a mix of long and short selloffs without a sustained increase in either, indicating a market characterized by speculative trading and sudden price changes rather than consistent directional movement.

Source: Coinglass

This liquidation pattern also aligns with the continued price performance of DOGE. Despite its resilience, the market remains uncertain, marked by short-term recoveries and corrections. Just like a typical memecoin.

Source: CFGI

Analysis of Dogecoin's monthly chart revealed a cryptocurrency struggling with volatility and market sentiment as well. Over the past month, for example, DOGE has exhibited a series of fluctuations, but has mostly moved within a limited price range of around $0.135 to $0.175.

The relative strength index (RSI) hovering between the 30s and 60s means that memecoin is in neutral to slightly bearish zones on the charts.

Source: DOGE/USD, TradingView

The moving averages appeared to share a clearer picture of the medium-term trend on the DOGE chart. In fact, the 200-day moving average is mostly above the 50-day mark – a sign that despite the near-term rallies, the broader outlook is still quite bearish for Dogecoin.