Delaying Donald Trump's Sentencing Could Have Disastrous Consequences

Donald Trump's request to have his corruption conviction re-evaluated in the wake of the Supreme Court's immunity ruling could backfire because his sentencing date is now closer to the 2024 election, experts say.

Mark Shanahan, an associate professor and expert in American politics at the University of Surrey in the UK, suggested that the so-called “October surprise” expected in presidential cycles could now be a “September earthquake” following the postponement of Trump's sentencing.

Judge Juan Merchan, who oversaw Trump's trial on charges of falsifying business records, in which Trump was convicted on 34 counts, agreed Tuesday to postpone the former president's sentencing date from July 11 to Sept. 18. Trump denies any wrongdoing and plans to appeal.

Trump's legal team has been pushing for such a measure after the nation's highest court ruled Monday that Trump is entitled to at least presumptive immunity from prosecution for all his “official acts” performed in office, in a decision related to the 2020 federal election obstruction case involving the Republican.

Shanahan said Newsweek It is “no surprise” that Trump's hush-money order has been postponed until September following the Supreme Court ruling, and that it could ultimately hurt the Republican's chances at the White House.

“Everyone was surprised by the Supreme Court’s decision on presidential immunity, and all sides are scrambling to understand whether and how it applies to the New York verdicts,” Shanahan said. News week.

“If the case is dismissed, or more likely, if the verdict is further delayed, it will galvanize Democrats like no other cause, with a likely ripple effect on the few swing voters in the half-dozen states that will decide this election.

“The hardened MAGA vote puts Trump on a very different level, where felony convictions have no effect on their fervor for their candidate. But for voters who still believe in the constitutional separation of powers and the rule of law, any further delay or moderation of the New York verdicts would set the stage for a final month of campaigning based on the principle of preserving democracy,” Shanahan added.

Trump's legal team has asked for the July 11 sentencing date to be pushed back as it seeks to overturn his conviction for falsifying 34 business records.

They argue that some of the evidence presented in the silence trial, such as tweets and other communications, could be examples of official acts for which the Supreme Court has said Trump cannot be prosecuted or used as evidence.

As former Democratic pollster Adam Carlson noted, the proposed new September 18 judgment date comes just two days before early voting begins in Minnesota, South Dakota and Virginia.

While none of these states are considered battlegrounds — Trump is expected to easily win South Dakota in November, with Minnesota and Virginia considered blue states — the issue of Trump's delayed sentencing could affect him more elsewhere.

Jason Easley, editor-in-chief of PoliticusUSA, suggested that having Trump's felony conviction fresh in the minds of key voters at sentencing in September could hurt the Republican's chances at the White House.

“Given that polls show that felony convictions hurt Trump among independent and swing voters, the former president might have been better served by handing down his sentence in July, before the party conventions, while people are not paying attention and their minds are occupied with summer vacation,” Easley wrote.

“As voters pay attention and prepare to cast their ballots, Trump will likely find himself in a Manhattan courtroom and sentenced for the crimes he committed.”

In response, a spokesperson for Trump's office shared again with Newsweek a message from Truth Social from the former president claiming he has “TOTAL EXONERATION” following the Supreme Court ruling.

“It is clear that the Supreme Court’s historic and brilliantly written decision ends all the witch hunts waged against me by Joe Biden, including the civil hoaxes inspired by the White House and the Justice Department in New York,” Trump wrote. “All of these unjust accusations represent the worst level of election interference ever seen in our Country’s long and storied history.”

Polls are divided over whether Trump's felony conviction hurt or helped his chances of beating President Joe Biden in November.

Some suggest the Republican's chances at the White House have increased significantly following the CNN presidential debate, in which Biden delivered a languid performance that led one Democratic lawmaker to urge the president to drop out of the race.

Trump's sentencing date, September 18, will come eight days after the proposed second presidential debate between Trump and Biden, hosted by ABC.

The Manhattan district attorney's office did not oppose Trump's request to delay sentencing following the Supreme Court's immunity ruling, but said their arguments were “without merit.”