Deconstructing the 2024 Steelers Roster: The Near-Lockouts

I'm revisiting an exercise I did ahead of the 2022 Pittsburgh Steelers season. With the team a month away from reporting to training camp, it's worth taking inventory of the team's 90-man roster (which, due to an international exemption, can and will soon become a 91-man roster) and offering a framework for the odds of each player making the 53-man roster.

We're getting closer to the bottom and top of the Steelers roster with the “near certainties” of making the team. Names that aren't 100% set in stone yet, but should be confident about their chances heading into camp. Remember, this exercise doesn't factor in injuries and only reflects chances of making the 53-man roster, not the practice squad.

Steelers are almost assured (76-94% participation on Steelers' 53-man roster)

NT Montravius ​​Adams – 90%
S Damontae Kazee – 90%
Dan Moore, OT – 90%
FROM Dean Lowry – 85%
TE/FB Connor Heyward – 85%
CB Cam Sutton – 80%
First Lineman Mark Robinson – 80%
QB Kyle Allen – 80%

Adams is a very average defensive lineman and not nearly as effective as a pass rusher as he is as an athlete. But he signed a multi-year deal this offseason and those guys rarely get cut in their first camp back. He should be the No. 2 nose tackle behind Keeanu Benton after starting ahead of him for the first half of last year. Kazee won't be a starter but will function as a sub-package player, likely used on the dime.

Moore still has a good chance of making the Steelers roster, though his chances of starting are much slimmer. The 10 percent to consider is the chance he gets traded. Pittsburgh will value his experience at tackle even if Moore is an awkward backup. But there could be a market for him, and if Dylan Cook has a good summer, he'll give the team the confidence to be the Steelers' go-to tackle.

Like Adams, Lowry signed a two-year deal this offseason. He's a pure run blocker but should make the team in Armon Watts' role. I'm only slightly below Adams because there's more competition at defensive end than nose tackle.

Many will argue that Heyward is too low. Arthur Smith loves his tight ends. But he also filled the roster with five of them. Is Heyward a capable in-line blocker for this run-heavy system? His size is an obvious issue. Will he and can he lead the block from the back end? His special teams value, versatility and comfort as a Y-off in this zone-heavy system are assets, and he likely will. But he's a jack-of-all-trades in a deep position group. He's not completely locked in.

It's hard to evaluate Sutton with a suspension hanging over him. I'm banking on his play to earn him a spot, not to mention the NFL's intervention in handing him a multi-game ban. Sutton had a rough 2023 with Detroit, but should fit better in Pittsburgh's system. But signed at the minimum, he can be easily discounted.

Robinson isn’t as safe as some think. The team has clearly shown confidence issues, barely playing him through a litany of injuries in 2023, and has reloaded at the position this offseason. He’ll really have to earn his spot on special teams because that won’t come on defense. Pittsburgh values ​​having three experienced quarterbacks, which should secure Allen’s spot. However, a brand-new quarterback room lends itself to uncertainty and the NFL has expanded the practice squad rules to allow a third emergency QB to come from there. That takes away, to my knowledge, one of the two standard elevations teams get each week, but it creates additional flexibility, which hurts Allen’s position a bit.