CT coastal locations may experience monthly flooding for the near future. See where.

A new analysis of coastal resilience speak Union of Concerned Scientists identifies specific locations along the Connecticut coast that can expect up to 12 floods per year by 2030.

By 2050, even more will be at risk, including a New Haven fire station and public housing in Stratford.

“This is really the first effort that takes an in-depth look at what constitutes a fairly discrete risk to critical infrastructure in coastal communities,” said Erika Spangerdirector of strategic climate analysis within the union's climate and energy program.

“And it names the specific assets that will experience these chronic flooding in a practical time frame if we don't act,” she said. “This is really solid science, really accessible data and information. And what that tells us is that our leaders face deadlines that we must meet to build coastal resilience. But coastal communities and, indeed, the nation as a whole will pay a very heavy price. »

The analysis shows that 33 of Connecticut's “critical infrastructure” would be at risk of flooding twice a year by 2050 and 15 would be at risk of flooding every two weeks. The numbers rise to 127 and 98 by 2100.

According to the data, sixteen communities will face such flood risk in 2050, but this number will increase to 44 by 2100.

The sites include seven brownfield sites in Bridgeport, including Mount Trashmore, AGI Rubber and Chrome Engineering. These include Raymond Baldwin public housing and three affordable housing units in Stratford, the Devon Station power plant in Milford and the Engine Company 16 fire station on Lighthouse Road in New Haven.

Several wastewater treatment plants are also on the list.

Nationally, nearly 1,100 critical infrastructures would flood on average once a month by 2050, and that number would increase to 5,300 by 2100, the union said.

“Our society depends on infrastructure such as subsidized housing, wastewater treatment facilities, power plants and hospitals that provide reliable services,” said Kristina Dahl, lead author of the report and the union's senior climatologist. “If these facilities flood even once, it can be incredibly disruptive, even crippling daily life. »

“For some people: twice a year is no big deal,” Spanger said. “It doesn’t matter if it’s a parking lot. It doesn't matter if it's a quiet road. But if it's an emergency services center… We see a lot of fire stations, police stations showing up in these results. And that's a big problem.

“Critical infrastructure is just that. It's critical. It's the kind of infrastructure that communities rely on to keep life flowing, people staying safe, or urgent services provided. And we just can’t let that be disrupted,” she said.

Spanger said it was surprising that so many homes showed up in the rankings. “We didn't expect to see so much social housing and affordable housing come out of the results, but this is the most exposed type of critical infrastructure,” she said.

In addition, using a tool from Council on environmental quality“We found that communities identified as disadvantaged have twice as much critical infrastructure at risk per capita over the 2050 time frame that we envision compared to communities that are not designated as disadvantaged,” Spanger said.

“And there also tends to be more than one type of critical infrastructure and risk in disadvantaged communities,” she said.

Federal and state policies are going to have to change to ensure housing incorporates protections against sea level rise, Spanger said.

“Housing is one of the most important sectors that will need to incorporate these changes,” she said. “We're going to have to increase funding for protecting housing that can be protected in place, and we're going to have to mobilize resources, really significant resources, to create safe, affordable, climate resilient, public, affordable housing. find accommodation elsewhere.

“And for communities that might be forced to consider resettlement due to very severe weather risks, we will need resources and institutional support to actually provide a way out of that risk, and the agency to make choice about where to go.”

Chadwick Schroeder, Head of Sustainability for the city ​​of Bridgeport, said redevelopment proposals for sites listed in the report include “nature-based solutions wherever feasible and possible to implement.” So things like living shorelines, reducing the stormwater-generated impacts of a site through green infrastructure,” incorporating native plants where possible.

Schroeder said the city is working to mitigate the effects of sea level rise in general.

“We got funding from DEEP to conduct a comprehensive climate vulnerability assessment of the city, where we're basically going to model climate impacts out to 2075, overlaying that with socio-demographic data, sitting down with our organizations communities and mapping existing vulnerabilities or flooding issues or climate-related issues that already exist in the city and developing priority areas for resilience interventions, with an intentional focus on building with the community rather only for,” he said.

The city is also deliberately integrating youth and workforce development programs into its resilience efforts, he said.

Mount Trashmore “is going to involve a living shoreline, restoring waterfront access for the primarily black community that has long been excluded from access to their waterfront,” Schroeder said. “They're making it now Mount Growmore hydroponics is developing a farm and wellness campus to help end the food desert in the East End, increase food chain resilience and also address workforce development needs.

Another project is the Ash Creek Urban Tidal Estuary. “We work with Record the sound right now and Ash Creek Conservation Association “to see if we can place essentially clean fill on the marsh at a rate that allows it to migrate out of the floodplain before the water overwhelms it and washes it away. »

There is also a plan to create a living shoreline in Seaside Park, which was hit hard by Superstorm Sandy.

In Stratford, Larry Ciccarelli serves as both the director of public safety and emergency management.

He said the Raymond Baldwin public housing buildings, while on the Union of Concerned Scientists list, are listed as lower priority based on their location in the city.

“We make lists based on three things,” he said. “One is areas that are flooded all the time, areas that could potentially flood in a given year, and then those that have a longer-term risk, such as in 100-year flood areas .”

The Baldwin properties fall into the third category, he said.

“The Baldwin facilities on Birch, that third category, haven’t really had a lot of exposure,” he said. “Just because they're in a 100-year category doesn't mean we're not looking at them. So we have priority projects every five years to make sure we mitigate the first two as quickly as possible and then the third as part of a longer-term plan.

Ciccarelli said the city's flood stage is 12 feet and the Baldwin property is only 6 or 8 feet, “but they were very lucky.”

“If an area of ​​Baldwin flooded every year, it would be a different story,” he said. “But fortunately, that’s not the case. But they are on the list of measures to be mitigated. They simply don't take priority over other areas that are constantly being impacted.

Ed Stannard can be contacted at [email protected].