Chart shows how global nuclear weapons stockpiles compare

A senior White House official warned last week that the United States could deploy more strategic nuclear weapons, “absent a change in the adversary's arsenals.”

“We have to be fully prepared to execute if the president makes that decision,” Pranay Vaddi, special assistant to the president and senior director for arms control at the White House, told the Arms Control Association.

Even as the raw number of global nuclear weapons declines following the dismantling of nuclear warheads removed by Russia and the United States, the reduction is slowing.

China, Russia and North Korea are “all expanding and diversifying their nuclear arsenals at a breakneck pace,” Vaddi said.

Researchers at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) wrote in a report this year that China, Russia, North Korea, Pakistan, India, the United Kingdom and possibly Russia would “increase their stocks”.

The FAS report, published this year, estimates the size and composition of nuclear powers' stockpiles. The think tank said it based its estimates on publicly available information, analysis of records and “occasional leaks.”

A News week The chart illustrates these estimates, with a comparison below between the United States and its nuclear-armed adversaries.

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The United States is estimated to have 5,044 nuclear warheads, of which 1,336 have been removed from service and are expected to be dismantled.

Of the remainder, 1,938 are retained reserves rather than deployed. About a hundred of them are non-strategic warheads deployed or based in military installations as well as short-range launch systems.

Another 1,670 are deployed on intercontinental missiles or at bases housing long-range strategic bombers like the B-52 Stratofortress.

Russia

Moscow outpaces Washington in the size of its nuclear stockpile, with the former Cold War foes combining for about 84% of available warheads, according to the FAS.

Of the 5,580 Russian warheads, 1,200 of which will be removed from service and 2,670 in reserve. Virtually none of these are estimated to be deployed on short-range “non-strategic” launch systems, while 1,710 are deployed strategically.

Amid tensions with NATO over Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Moscow suspended its participation in the New START treaty signed in 2010 with Washington to cap deployed nuclear weapons.

Last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered exercises with tactical nuclear weapons in response to what the Russian Defense Ministry called “provocative statements and threats” from Western officials.

China

China comes third with around 500 nuclear warheads, none of which appear to be deployed. However, the expansion of its nuclear arsenal is accelerating.

The US Department of Defense estimates that China's total nuclear weapons will be around 200 in 2020. Its stockpile is on track to reach 700 warheads by 2027 and more than 1,000 by 2030, the Pentagon estimated last year in its annual report on China's military power.

China has also developed its rapid nuclear counterattack potential with the construction of hundreds of missile silos.

China, the only country besides India to maintain an official policy of no first use of nuclear weapons, this year renewed its call for negotiations on an arsenal reduction treaty and no-first-strike commitments between the major nuclear powers.

A Pentagon spokesperson previously said News week that the United States is concerned about the verifiability of such a treaty, stating: “The People's Republic of China's massive build-up of its nuclear arsenal is in apparent tension with its stated policy of 'no first use,' which calls into question the usefulness of such an initiative. aims to achieve.”

North Korea

North Korea is estimated to have developed around 50 nuclear warheads.

The reclusive country is subject to United Nations Security Council sanctions intended to curb its nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

Pyongyang maintains it needs nuclear weapons as a deterrent and last year enshrined the policy in its constitution amid growing tensions with Seoul. The United States and South Korea have warned that Kim's regime would end if the North uses its nuclear warheads.

News week contacted the Russian and North Korean foreign ministries outside of office hours for comment.