Can using Western weapons against Russia change the war?

Ukraine is now allowed to use Western weapons to strike targets in Russia. What will this decision change and what impact will it have on the front line in Ukraine?

Until now, Western countries limited the use of their weapons to military targets located inside Ukraine, notably in Crimea and the occupied territories. They feared that attacking targets beyond the internationally recognized border with weapons supplied by NATO countries would escalate the conflict.

But Russia's latest advance in the northeastern Kharkiv region has convinced kyiv's allies that to defend itself, Ukraine must also be able to destroy military targets across the border.

Last month, Russia launched a massive ground offensive in the region, opening a new front and capturing several villages. The Russian advance poses a serious threat to Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city, located just 30 km from the border.

The border in this region also constitutes the front line, so the ban on using Western weapons to strike targets beyond Ukraine allowed Russian troops to prepare for this operation in a safe environment .

Following increasing pressure from Ukraine and other European states, the United States agreed to change its policy and allow kyiv to strike Russia with Western weapons.

“The hallmark of our commitment has been to adapt and adjust as necessary, to respond to what is actually happening on the battlefield, to ensure that Ukraine has what it needs, when it needs it. needs,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at a news conference. meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Prague on Friday.

Just days before the announcement, Russian President Vladimir Putin had threatened to expand “sanitary zones” in case long-range Western weapons were used to strike Russian territory.

He said European NATO countries must remember that they have “states with small territories and dense populations.”

“They must take this factor into consideration before discussing strikes deep into Russian territory,” he added.

Avoiding escalation is likely why the United States did not include long-range weapons such as ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile Systems) in its authorization to strike Russia. These missiles have a range of 300 km and could be used to strike military bases and airfields located inside Russian territory.

Such limitations leave Ukraine with the only option to focus on targets close to its border. But this is still a major policy shift from kyiv's main allies.

Even with a shorter range – up to 70 km – multiple rocket launchers such as HIMARS can significantly disrupt Russian logistical operations and troop movements, ultimately slowing down any offensive plans.

Now Ukraine can “strike places where the enemy has concentrated its troops, equipment and storage facilities for supplies that are used to attack Ukraine,” says Yuriy Povkh of the Kharkiv tactical group which coordinates the operations military in the northeast.

Earlier this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia was massing its troops just 90 km from Kharkiv for a new offensive.

And the Institute for the Study of War analyzed satellite imagery and confirmed there was “increased activity at depots and warehouses” in that area. Thus, the ability to target these facilities will significantly enhance the ability of Ukrainian forces to repel further attacks in the region.

Lifting the ban on Western weapons, however, is unlikely to help protect Ukraine from Russian glide bombs known locally as KABs. They have a devastating effect and are regularly used to bomb Kharkiv and other border towns. But to stop such attacks, Ukrainian forces must target the planes that drop these deadly KABs.

The only weapon capable of intercepting these planes that Ukraine currently has is the American Patriot air defense system. However, bringing this weapon closer to Kharkiv represents a huge risk. Spy drones can spot it quickly and Moscow can launch missiles like Iskander to destroy this expensive system.

Interestingly, the United Kingdom and France, which supply Ukraine with Storm Shadow (or Scalp as they are called in France) air-launched cruise missiles, have not explicitly restricted their use. And their range can go up to 250 km. In fact, French President Emmanuel Macron told reporters last week: “We should allow [Ukraine] neutralize the military sites from which the missiles are fired and, indeed, the military sites from which Ukraine is attacked.”

And such rhetoric is considered permission to use Storm Shadows/Scalps, a military aviation officer who preferred to remain anonymous told the BBC. So, he said, Ukraine can now strike airfields in the Kursk and Belgorod regions that border Ukraine.

However, these operations will be limited in terms of results. Ukrainian Su-24s equipped with these cruise missiles will have to come closer to the Russian border in order to launch them, making them vulnerable to Russian air defense systems. The F-16 jets expected by the end of this year are better equipped for such tasks. But President Zelensky admits that it is still unclear whether Ukraine's partners will allow the planes to be used to attack targets in Russia.

“I think that the use of any weapon, of Western type, on the territory of Russia is a question of time,” he said on Friday at the Nordic summit in Stockholm.

Ukrainian forces are trying to develop their own weapons to hit targets behind Russia. Some of their drones have attacked oil depots and military installations hundreds of kilometers from the border.

The latest attack took place on a long-range radar station in the town of Orsk, located 1,800 km from the Ukrainian border.