Biden's bold bet for a ceasefire in Gaza

For weeks, U.S. officials have been referring to an “extraordinarily generous” offer by Israel to secure a ceasefire and hostage agreement with Hamas in Gaza. Today, President Joe Biden told the world what that offer really was. Speaking from the White House, Biden outlined a multi-step “Israeli proposal” to end the current war, and called on Hamas to accept its terms and for Israeli leaders to support the deal despite internal pressure from the right to continue the fight.

“This new proposal has three phases,” the president said. “The first phase would last six weeks. This would entail: a total and complete ceasefire, a withdrawal of Israeli forces from all populated areas of Gaza, the release of a number of hostages, including women, the elderly and the injured , in exchange for the release of hundreds of hostages. Palestinian prisoners.

American hostages, Biden noted, would be released during this time, while Gaza civilians would return home and humanitarian aid would flow into the strip. Notably, this latest proposal contains a key Israeli concession. Previous negotiations broke down after Hamas insisted it could include dead hostages, not just live hostages, in the number required by the first phase of the deal. In his speech, Biden indicated that Israel had now adhered to this previously rejected stipulation. “Some of the remains of the hostages who were killed will be returned to their families,” he said, “thus putting an end to their terrible grief.”

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Negotiators, the president continued, would use the six weeks of the first phase of the agreement to craft the next, which would serve to secure the release of the remaining hostages and a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. Biden was careful to note that the ceasefire would be extended as long as these negotiations were ongoing, even if they were not completed after six weeks. The third and final phase of the deal would combine an international initiative to rebuild Gaza with the release of the bodies of remaining hostages. “It is time for this war to end,” the president concluded, “and for the next day to begin.”

To careful observers, much of the information in Biden's speech was not new. Many details of the negotiations between Israel and Hamas have already been leaked to the Israeli and international press. But Biden's remarks are the first time the terms of the proposed deal have been officially confirmed. By making these documents public, Biden clearly hopes to put pressure on the parties to finally reach an agreement. But key decisions are beyond his control.

To begin with, contrary to some misreports, Hamas has rejected all Israeli offers so far – and the terrorist group has good reason to believe that this strategy works in its favor. In the past month alone, the International Criminal Court prosecutor has sought arrest warrants for Israeli leaders, while the International Court of Justice has called on Israel to limit its operations in the southern Gaza town of Rafah . As global pressure on Israel only increases, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar may be content to wait for outside actors to force Israel to accede to his demands and end the war without releasing a single person. hostage. This will prolong the hostilities, in which Palestinian civilians will pay the price, but Hamas – which embeds itself among civilians and has built its war machine from civilian aid and infrastructure – has openly declared that he was not responsible for the civilians of Gaza.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also has reason to torpedo this proposal – even though he probably authorized it. As Biden said in his speech, Israel has indeed made far-reaching offers to Hamas to end the war. But a proposal made behind closed doors by negotiators is not the same as a proposal capable of withstanding the public pressures of Israeli politics. Biden explicitly referenced this challenge in his speech: “I know there are those in Israel who will disagree with this plan and will call for the war to continue indefinitely – some are even part of the government coalition. »

Netanyahu has a long history of carefully negotiating sensitive deals, only to abandon them following backlash from his right-wing base. And Netanyahu's base – not to mention his far-right partners – does not want to end this war, believing that the total elimination of Hamas should take precedence over other war goals. The prime minister's most radical allies also dream of resettling Gaza, something any ceasefire deal would rule out. Given this reality, it is entirely possible that Netanyahu will turn against a proposal he himself initiated if he believes it jeopardizes his political position.

For now, the prime minister is generally keeping his options open. In response to Biden's speech, Netanyahu's office issued a short, carefully worded statement: “The Israeli government is united in its desire to return the hostages as quickly as possible and is working to achieve this goal.” The prime minister authorized the negotiating team to present a proposal to this end, which would also allow Israel to continue the war until all of its objectives are achieved, including the destruction of Hamas's military and government capabilities. The current proposal put forward by Israel, including the conditional transition from one phase to the next, allows Israel to respect these principles. » Israelis currently observe Shabbat, so the full contours of the country's reaction to Biden's remarks – and the pressure on Netanyahu – will not be apparent until later in the weekend.

On Thursday, Hamas issued a statement to the media saying it would not return to the negotiating table unless the fighting first stopped. If the group sticks to this absolutist position, which would leave all hostages under its control, Biden's calls will achieve nothing. However, in response to Biden's speech, Hamas appeared to indicate greater flexibility, without explicitly signaling its agreement on the details of the proposed deal, the fate of which remains in limbo. The president pushed events as far as he could, but even American presidents have their limits.