A look at prospects for a ceasefire deal after Israel rescues four Hamas hostages

TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — Israel's weekend drama rescue of four hostages from deep inside an urban area in the Gaza Strip came at a sensitive moment in the eight-month-old war, as Israel and Hamas mull a US proposal for a ceasefire and release of prisoners remaining.

Both sides face new pressure to reach an agreement: The complex rescue is unlikely to be replicated on a scale sufficient to bring back the dozens of remaining hostages, and it is a powerful reminder for Israelis that there are still surviving prisoners held in harsh conditions. Hamas now has four fewer bargaining chips.

But they could also engage in it, as they have repeatedly done during months of indirect negotiations mediated by the United States, Qatar and Egypt. Hamas still insists on ending the war as part of any deal, while Israel says it remains committed to destroy the militant group.

Here's a look at the fallout from the operation and how it could affect ceasefire talks:

Exaltation and growing calls for a deal

The rescue operation was Israel's most successful since the start of the war, bringing home four of the approximately 250 captives captured by Hamas in its October 7 cross-border attack. including Noa Argamanibecome an icon of the fight for the release of hostages.

The raid also killed at least 274 Palestinians, according to Gaza's health ministry, worsening the suffering of Gaza's population who have had to endure a brutal war and humanitarian catastrophe.

This rescue aroused exaltation in Israel, which is still in shock from the Hamas attack and anguished by the fate of the 80 captives and the remains of more than 40 others still detained in Gaza. Israeli hardliners will likely use this as proof that military pressure alone will bring back the rest.

But only three other hostages have been freed by military force since the start of the war. Three others were mistakenly killed by Israeli forces after fleeing on their own, and Hamas says others were killed in Israeli airstrikes.

“If anyone believes that yesterday's operation relieves the government of the need to reach a deal, they are living a fantasy,” Israeli columnist Nahum Barnea wrote in the popular Yediot Aharonot newspaper. “There are people who need to be saved, and the sooner the better. »

Even Israeli army spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari acknowledged the limits of military force. “What will bring most of the hostages home alive is an agreement,” he told reporters.

More than 100 hostages were freed during a week-long ceasefire last year, in exchange for the Palestinians imprisoned by Israel, and reaching a similar deal is still widely seen as the only way to recover the remaining hostages. Hours after Saturday's rescue, tens of thousands of Israelis took part in protests in Tel Aviv calling for such a deal.

US President Joe Biden last week announced a proposal for a phased ceasefire and hostage release plan, setting in motion the administration's most concentrated diplomatic push for a truce.

Biden has described it as an Israeli proposal, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly questioned aspects of it, including his call for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and a lasting truce. His ultranationalist coalition partners threatened to overthrow his government if he ended the war without destroying Hamas.

This appears to have only increased the suspicions of Hamas, which has demanded international guarantees that the war will end. It is unclear whether such guarantees were offered, and Hamas has not yet officially responded to the plan.

NETANYAHU SEEKS TO WIN

The rescue operation was a rare victory for Netanyahu, whom many Israelis blame the security breaches that led to the October 7 attack and the inability to return hostages despite months of bitter war.

He rejoiced at the success of the operation, rushing Saturday to the hospital where the freed hostages were being held and meeting each of them in front of the cameras. Recent opinion polls have already shown it is making progress in rehabilitating its image, and the rescue operation will help.

But as the elation fades, he will still face intense pressure from a U.S. administration that wants to end the war and an ultranationalist base that wants to defeat Hamas at all costs. His main political opponent, retired general Benny Gantz, leave the wartime emergency coalition Sunday, leaving Netanyahu even more beholden to hardliners.

Netanyahu already faces criticism from some families of deceased hostages, who say he received no such visits and accuse him of taking only credit for war successes. Israel will also likely face increased international pressure due to the high number of Palestinian casualties in the raid.

“The successful release of four hostages is a magnificent tactical victory that has not changed our deplorable strategic situation,” columnist Ben Caspit wrote in the Israeli daily Maariv.

It all represents a difficult balancing act, even for someone like Netanyahu, whom friends and foes consider a master politician.

The operation could provide the Israeli public with the kind of boost that would allow them to justify reaching a deal with Hamas. Or he could conclude that time is on his side and he can strike tougher negotiations with activists as they grapple with a major setback.

Hamas loses negotiating chips

Hamas lost four valuable bargaining chips it hoped to exchange for high-profile Palestinian prisoners. Argamani, widely known thanks to a video showing her pleading for her life as militants took her away on motorcycles, was a particularly significant loss for Hamas.

The raid may also have been a blow to Hamas morale. During the attack of October 7Hamas managed to humiliate a country with a far superior army, and since then it has repeatedly regrouped despite devastating military operations across Gaza.

But the fact that Israel was able to rise a complex rescue operation in broad daylight in the center of a crowded urban area has, at least temporarily, restored some of the mystery that Israeli security forces had lost on October 7.

The operation also refocused global attention on the hostage crisis at a time when the United States is mobilizing global pressure on Hamas to accept the ceasefire agreement.

But Hamas has a long history of resisting pressure from Israel and others – often at enormous cost to Palestinians. Activists might conclude that it's best to use the remaining hostages to end the war while they can – or they might simply look for better places to hide them.

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