MIRV: Has North Korea succeeded in firing a new missile?

A weapons test this week has become the latest point of contention between North and South Korea, with Pyongyang claiming it fired an advanced multi-warhead missile and Seoul accusing them of lying.

Hours after North Korean state media hailed the “success” of its test and released photos as evidence on Thursday, the South called it “deception and exaggeration” and released its own evidence pointing to failure.

Analysts, however, remain uncertain about the veracity of the North's claims.

The dispute underscores the complexity of verifying North Korea's weapons development, which continues to advance despite tough international sanctions.

If North Korea's latest claims prove true, it would represent significant progress in its missile program.

It is difficult to defend against missiles with multiple warheads and the technology is difficult to develop. Currently, only the United States – which first developed it in the 1960s – as well as the United Kingdom, France, Russia and China have these capabilities.

Pyongyang is now loudly announcing that it too is on the verge of achieving this.

For some time now, experts have been discussing the possibility that North Korea may eventually develop MIRV capabilities.

MIRV means multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles. The technology involves attaching multiple nuclear warheads to a single missile that would separate after launch. The warheads would then be propelled by their own rockets to hit various targets.

They can be released at different speeds and in several directions, allowing them to reach targets hundreds of kilometers away. This is what makes these weapons particularly effective.

Pyongyang said Thursday it had “successfully conducted the test of separation and guidance control of individual mobile warheads” the previous day. The weapon, the statement said, used the first-stage engine of an intermediate-range solid-fuel ballistic missile and deployed three warheads plus a decoy.

The missile flew a “reduced range” of 170 to 200 km (105 to 124 miles) to ensure safety and measure the warheads' flight, state media said. The warheads were “correctly guided” to their targets while anti-aircraft radar found that the decoy had also deployed effectively.

The test was “of great importance to strengthen” their missile forces and aimed to “secure MIRV capability”, which was placed as a top priority.

The South Korean military, however, was quick to refute the claims, saying that “the flight was not normal” and that the weapon had exploded in mid-air.

He released a video of the test that he had filmed, saying the initial phase showed unstable flight that led to a mid-air explosion. Military officials said they detected a large amount of debris, more than would be expected from a successful test.

They also said that North Korean footage purportedly showing the nuclear warheads and decoy separating from the missile was actually footage of an intercontinental ballistic missile test in March.

Analysts quoted by South Korea's Yonhap news agency said the range of the test was more typical for intercontinental ballistic missile tests. They also said the missile may not have had sufficient guidance and control systems.

Other experts believe that parts of the test were successful, although much remains unknown.

Yang Uk, a researcher at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, told the BBC that while he believed the theft and separation of the warheads had worked, “North Korea has not revealed evidence whether the warheads hit their targets – we can't say they were successful here.”

Japan's defence ministry said the missile reached a maximum altitude of 100km. This meant it did not enter space but remained in the Earth's atmosphere. Dr Yang said this also meant that “the warheads have not been tested for the high heat and pressure that follow atmospheric re-entry, so we cannot know their capabilities”.

Vann Van Diepen, a North Korean weapons expert and former U.S. State Department official, said the video “does not appear to indicate a large explosion or catastrophic failure,” and that the contrail appeared consistent with the photos. North Korean state media.

“But that does not rule out a more subtle failure,” he added, stressing that there was no independent evidence that warheads had been dropped and had managed to fly on their own.

Whatever the truth about the test's success, what is clearer is that North Korea would still have reaped some gains.

Observers point out that Pyongyang may have obtained useful technical data during the launch, bringing it one step closer to achieving MIRV capability, a goal publicly set by the North Korean government in 2021.

MIRV missiles would be prized given their “productivity,” Mr. Van Diepen said, particularly in a situation where North Korea might have a depleted missile arsenal after a first strike from an enemy.

This week's test, even if successful, would not be enough to complete the development of such a weapon, but he estimated that the North Koreans were “at least a few years away” from that goal.

The timing of the test, days before a plenary meeting where North Korean officials are scheduled to take stock of their work in the first half of the year, may not be a coincidence. It could be aimed at showcasing the military's achievements, other experts say.

It would also have sent a message of continued defiance and a signal of the country's developing capabilities to its enemies.

Washington did not react much to this latest test, other than a short joint statement with Japan and South Korea condemning the incident. But Mr. Van Diepen said the U.S. government, which has the best resources to analyze North Korea's weapons tests, could and should shed more light on what happened.

“Otherwise, the North gets a free propaganda victory.”

Additional reporting by Jake Kwon and Rachel Lee